[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W 4N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
1N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO
INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-8W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-
33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC
WHILE NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE GULF THIS EVENING. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
WITH REPORTS OF HAZE ARE OVER THE W GULF WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE
COAST FROM TERREBONNE BAY LOUISIANA TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO TUXPAN
MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF LATE THU/EARLY FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE
OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE TRADE WINDS
ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR ANTIGUA ALONG 18N64W TO THE MONA PASSAGE TO
OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-17N E OF 83W TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK KEEPING THE TRADE WINDS IN PLACE.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
31N BETWEEN 74W-76W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N65W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS W ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SE
INTO THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 18N46W. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N46W ALONG 29N53W TO 29N58W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO BEYOND 32N65W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
32N13W AND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 25N27W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT E-NE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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