[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W
TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 04N16W TO 01N25W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 01N25W AND
CONTINUES TO 00N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM
00N-05N BETWEEN 12W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE ITCZ FROM 00N-03N BETWEEN 25W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 31N87W TO 27N87W MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1014 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W
GULF NEAR 25N93W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS
ZONAL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER GULF AREA EXCEPT OVER N
FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE SE
GULF...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N74W. 25-30 KT
WINDS REMAIN ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF
80W. THE NE CARIBBEAN HAS 10-20 KT SE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FURTHER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO INCLUDE OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING OVER HISPANIOLA FROM THE E.
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STRONG 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N70W
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM THE N. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N40W
TO 27N50W TO 28N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
FRONT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM
31N27W TO 21N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THIS
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE  CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W SUPPORTING
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT IN 24
HOURS TO EXTEND FROM 31N27W TO 25N40W TO 26N50W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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