[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE
WINDS. COLD FRONT IS FROM 1003 MB LOW PRES NEAR 28N97W TO
22N97W. N OF 22N E OF FRONT TO 89W SE TO S WINDS ARE 25 TO 35 KT
WITH SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES E OVER THE GULF. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE NE WINDS FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE NE WINDS. METEO-FRANCE
IS FORECASTING GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND
TARFAYA. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS
OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTH NEAR GALE OR GALE OVER AGADIR AND
TARFAYA. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE... BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W
TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 04N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 04N20W AND CONTINUES TO 01N40W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 18W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1003 MB LOW NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS SUPPORTING A GALE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. SEE
ABOVE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER NE MEXICO...E TEXAS...THE W GULF W OF 93W...AND
W LOUISIANA W OF 92W. ENTRAINING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IS
PRODUCING SEVERE FLOODING INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 15-30 KT SE SURFACE FLOW WITH WEAKEST
WINDS OVER THE FAR NE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N104W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NW
GULF. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE TO N OF HOUSTON IN 24 HOURS WITH
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE.
CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVIEST W OF FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...
THE DISSIPATING TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN FROM 14N60W TO 13N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
MAINTAINING 20-30 KT WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
OUTSIDE OF THE GALE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 83W TO INCLUDE N NICARAGUA...
HONDURAS...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO FULLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STRONG 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
30N74WWITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THIS HIGH IS PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO 20N47W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR
14N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N
BETWEEN 35W-39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE FRONT. A GALE IS E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-70W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM 31N37W TO
20N40W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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