[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA AND THEN
INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 01N27W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03S TO 04N BETWEEN 20W AND
35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG 981 MB LOW OVER NW ATLC WATERS NEAR SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THEN SW TO
22N90W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN BASIN AND A
DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN GUATEMALA TO
THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND CHANNEL AND THE SE GULF WATERS S OF 26N. LIGHTING
DENSITY DATA SHOW HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
BAY OF CAMPECHE. N OF 26N...SURFACE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD
BEING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE STATE OF KENTUCKY.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN THIS REGION SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE NE TO E WINDS ACROSS
THE BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE NW GULF N OF 28N WHERE MODERATE SE
WINDS ARE OBSERVED. BY LATE TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THEN RIDGING WITH
DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN
ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
GUATEMALA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORTS HEAVY SHOWERS OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS
W OF 80W. HEAVY SHOWERS AFFECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. OVER
THE REMAINDER NORTHERN BASIN...SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY
THE TRADEWIND FLOW MAY ENHANCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TODAY. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES COVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT WITHIN
60 NM OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST WHERE FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW
CONTINUES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THESE REGIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER WEEKEND...INCREASING FOR HISPANIOLA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS A FRONT MOVES JUST N OF THE ISLAND.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED CLOUDS COVERS THE CENTRAL ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE ISLAND DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SHOWERS.
HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY MON MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES OVER ATLC WATERS JUST N OF
THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STRONG 981 MB LOW OVER NW ATLC WATERS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N65W SW TO 24N76W...ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...THEN SW TO 22N90W. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A 1015 MB
LOW IS NEAR 25N40W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N41W
TO THE LOW CENTER TO 20N42W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 350 NM E OF THE LOW. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N51W TO 14N56W. OTHERWISE...HEAVY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 19N TO 23N
BETWEEN 20W AND 28W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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