[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI MAR 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N78W TO 29.5N81W. EXPECT GALE-
FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET TO THE N OF
29.5N WITHIN 90 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
LIBERIA NEAR 07N11W TO 03N21W AND 02N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 02N24W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...ALONG THE EQUATOR TO
38W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 39W...TO 01S43W AND 03S36W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE MOSTLY
FROM 08N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ARE COVERING THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM 28N81W IN FLORIDA...TO 28N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TO 25N98W AT THE COAST OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N81W 28N90W 25N98W
LINE.

A NEW MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE U.S.A.
EAST COAST. PART OF THE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH TO 29N75W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W 28N60W 20N64W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 31N60W 28N67W 24N72W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KVOA...KIKT...AND KVKY HAS BEEN REPORTING MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FROM TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ALABAMA...THE
MOBILE DOWNTOWN AIRPORT HAS BEEN REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS SINCE
04/0900 UTC. FLORIDA...MVFR IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM
PERRY WESTWARD. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IN APALACHICOLA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA TO THE EASTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.20 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.05 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S.A. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 25N. THIS TROUGH SHOWED UP IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 73W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...A CLOUD
CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT 4000 FEET...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.
LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. SANTIAGO AND
PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL
PREVAIL DURING DAY ONE...AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
PREVAIL DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 300 NM TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERNMOST PART OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AT THE START OF DAY ONE. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM
THE...NORTHWEST-TO-WEST AT FIRST...AND THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM CUBA...
SOUTHEASTWARD...TO HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. NORTH-TO-
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. A
SEPARATE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA FOR THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO...BRINGING BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO. THAT CENTER
WILL DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO A CONTINUED RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND AT FIRST...FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N48W...TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N51W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 17N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N48W 17N53W 14N60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N41W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N41W AND 04N45W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 32N42W TO 29N43W...TO A
1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N42W. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM THE 26N42W LOW CENTER...TO 22N40W...CURVING TO
19N42W...AND TO 19N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO
32N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N30W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N34W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
27N29W 24N27W 22N26W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN20W AND 30W.

A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N55W.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS
OF...NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR GALE OR GALE FOR AGADIR AND
TARFAYA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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