[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE US AND WILL MOVE TO SW N
ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 29N W OF 76W.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN LIBERIA AFRICA AND
THEN INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 02N19W WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01S30W TO THE COAST OF
NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 07S TO 04N W OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS A
1009 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW ACROSS PENSACOLA FLORIDA...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO NEAR
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RADAR IMAGERY AND THE GOES LIGHTING
DENSITY PRODUCT SHOW HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...EXTENDING INTO THE NE GULF WATERS N OF 27N E OF 90W.
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NW BASIN N OF 27N...THE GOES IFR
PRODUCT SHOW HIGH FOG PROBABILITIES...BEING CONFIRMED BY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. VESSELS AND BOATS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THIS
REGION AS VISIBILITY MAY BE LESS THAN THREE MILES. LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE SOUTHERN BASIN ALONG WITH A
DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION INCLUDING...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 29N. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE S ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WHEN
THE IT WILL START DISSIPATING FROM THE STRAITS TO N OF TAMPICO
MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN ALONG WITH A
DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION INCLUDING...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND CUBA. SHALLOW
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA ENHANCING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADES ARE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WHERE FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW PREVAILS AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGES THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES N OF THE ISLAND IN THE SW N ATLC WATERS. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND ENTERS THE AREA
OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N63W TO 27N72W WHERE IT STARTS TO
DISSIPATE. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF 64W. TO THE
E...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N58W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1018 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N42W
FROM WHICH A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO 22N40W TO
17N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED 40N26W. A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF IT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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