[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021801 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 02N30W TO 01N37W AND THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 29W AND 51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE GULF OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR 30N83W TO 27N90W
TO THE S TEXAS COAST NEAR 26N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR SARASOTA AT 27N83W TO 26N86W. NO
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH EITHER FEATURE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
DRY AIR. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE COLD
FRONT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. MAINLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. ELSEWHERE...UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM
MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE OVER THE SW GULF ENHANCING CLOUD COVER
OVER THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WHILE
DISSIPATING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON
THURSDAY OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NE GULF AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
MAINLY N OF 14N. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS COVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 17N. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE
CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE ISLAND TODAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT ITSELF AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N78W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES REMAINS N OF 31N. HOWEVER...SW TO W WINDS OF 25 TO 30
KT ARE OCCURRING FROM 29N AND 31N BETWEEN 77W AND THE FL/GA
COASTS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 31N57W. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N42W TO 22N46W
TO 19N54W TO 19N63W. A PAIR OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS EXTEND FROM
19N52W TO 14N58W...AND FROM 30N41W TO 23N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 39W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE FRONT S OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST SURFACE TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. THE COLD
FRONT OVER FLORIDA WILL MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N65W TO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE BAHAMAS TO S
FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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