[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18N34W 13N34W 05N31W,
moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 03N to 08N between 30W and 35W.

A surface trough is along 52W/53W from 10N southward moving
westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N to 13N between 50W
and 56W.

A tropical wave is in the western sections of the Caribbean
Sea, and inland from Honduras southward. It is moving westward 10
KNOTS. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
within 30 NM on either side of 09N80W in Panama, 11N82W, and 13N84W
in Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
Caribbean Sea from 18N southward from 83W westward.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to
07N24W 06N30W 06N42W 04N48W. Convective precipitation elsewhere:
from 03N to 08N between 20W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level to upper level inverted trough is in the south
central gulf of mexico. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 300 nm to the north and
northeast of the inverted trough.

A diurnal surface trough is in the central part of the
southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. It is typical for this
trough to move from the Yucatan Peninsula during the late night/
early morning hours, and then weaken and dissipate during the late
morning/early afternoon hours. No significant deep convective
precipitation accompanies the trough.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico, from 23N northward. A 1022 mb high pressure center is
in southwestern Georgia.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA...Earlier rainshowers
immediately to the south of Lake Pontchartrain have ended for the
moment. MISSISSIPPI and ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...Rain
and thunder from the NAS Whiting Field to Pensacola

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level to upper level trough extends from an Atlantic
Ocean 24N59W cyclonic circulation center, to Puerto Rico and
16N70W in the Caribbean Sea. A second middle level to upper level
trough passes through 23N72W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Haiti
and the Windward Passage, to 14N76W in the Caribbean Sea. Broad
middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean
Sea.

Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 13N to 19N between 61W and
66W, in an area of scattered to broken low level clouds.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
27/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.37 in St.
Thomas in the Virgin Islands, 0.20 in Guadeloupe, 0.14 in Merida
in Mexico, 0.06 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.04 in Freeport in
the Bahamas, 0.04 in Nassau in the Bahamas, and 0.02 in Trinidad.

...HISPANIOLA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the area, with the
current middle level to upper level trough.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...VFR/NO
CEILINGS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/NO CEILINGS.
Santo Domingo: few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS. La Romana
and Punta Cana: VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/
NO CEILINGS.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the current trough
that cuts across Hispaniola from the Atlantic Ocean will remain
across the area for the first 24 hours. A second trough will move
across the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows that Hispaniola will be in the middle of an eastern
Caribbean Sea east- to-west oriented ridge and approaching
cyclonic wind flow with a trough to the west and northwest. This
will be the scenario for the first 24 hours. Southwesterly wind
flow from the ridge will cover Hispaniola for day two. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that an anticyclonic circulation
center will be in the Mona Passage, sending southeast wind flow
and sometimes anticyclonic wind flow, across the area for day one.
The same scenario is forecast for day two also.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N67W to 27N68W to 23N72W,
into the Caribbean Sea. A stationary front passes through 32N72W
to 31N75W, to a 1017 MB low pressure center that is near 31N79W.
A cold front continues from the low pressure center, cutting into
the northeaster corner of Florida and the southeastern corner of
Georgia. A surface trough extends from the 1017 MB low pressure
center, to 28N79W, across southern Florida to 25N82W just to the
north of the Florida Keys. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 28N northward between 63W and
72W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate elsewhere from 20N
northward from 60W westward.

A middle level to upper level trough extends from a 24N59W
cyclonic circulation center, beyond Puerto Rico, into the
Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 22N53W 19N54W 17N55W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 16N to 27N
between 49W and 60W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
23N northward from 70W eastward.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
mt
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