[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along
23W/24W from 6N to over the Cape Verde Islands near 16N moving
west 10 to 15 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave coincides with a
700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is along the
leading edge of a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 72W/73W
south of 16N to inland over South America moving west near 20 kt
over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as
seen on the global models and is embedded within a broad area of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
No associated deep convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 10N14W along 7N25W to 7N32W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 7N44W to South America near 8N59W. Clusters
of scattered moderate convection are from 7N-12N east of 20W to
the coast of west Africa. Clusters of isolated moderate
convection dot the area within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between
40W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge is anchored over the south Mexico near 20N97W
extending a ridge axis north over the north Gulf coast near the
Louisiana/Texas border. Difflunce aloft between this upper ridge
and an upper trough over the central Mexico is generating
scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms within 90
nm along the coast of Mexico south of 25N west of 95W. A
shortwave upper ridge extends from over Alabama across the
Florida peninsula into the west Atlantic while a second
shortwave upper ridge extends from the southeast Gulf near
23N86W into the west Caribbean. A surface trough extends from
the southeast Gulf near 25N85W to inland over the Yucatan near
21N89W to Guatemala near 16N91W. Scattered showers and possible
isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the surface trough.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms that developed inland over
Cuba and the Florida peninsula have moved into the Gulf waters
where they are beginning to dissipate. A surface ridge covers
the north Gulf extending from the west Atlantic across central
Florida to a 1018 mb high near 28N85W, then continues to the
northeast Texas coast. This is giving the remainder of the Gulf
mostly clear skies tonight. Surface ridge will persist through
the middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shortwave upper ridge extends from the southeast Gulf near
23N86W into the west Caribbean to near 15N80W. An upper
low/trough over the west-central Atlantic extends a trough axis
across the Mona Passage into the Caribbean to 15N72W then west
to over Nicaragua/Honduras near 14N85W across the Gulf of
Honduras to the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula. An upper
ridge anchored over the west Tropical Atlantic covers the east
Caribbean east of 65W. This upper ridge is advecting moisture
across the the far east Caribbean with scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms south of 16N east of 72W to over
the Lesser Antilles. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms that
developed inland over Cuba have moved into the Caribbean waters
where they are beginning to dissipate. The monsoon trough
extends from Colombia across Panama near 9N79W to Costa Rica
near 10N83W generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms south of a line from Nicaragua near 15N83W to
Colombia near 12N73W. Tropical wave will move across the south
Caribbean through Sunday night, then over Central America early
next week. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across much
of the central Caribbean through early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the west portion of
the island tonight west of 70W. The upper trough will move east
of the area early Monday giving the island westerly flow aloft.
The easterly trade winds coupled with daytime heating will
continue to generate afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
across the island through the the beginning of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough extends through a series of upper lows from the
northeast Atlantic near 33N31W to a low near 31N37W, 28N57W, and
20N67W then continues as a trough through the Mona Passage into
the Caribbean. A remnant surface trough is in the west-central
Atlantic extending from 30N61W to 22N57W with scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms from 23N-28N between 54W and the
surface trough. A second weak surface trough extends from 21N49W
to 16N49W with isolated showers within 90 nm east of the surface
trough. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface
ridge anchored by a 1037 mb high northwest of the Azores and a
ridge axis extending through 32N56W along 28N74W across central
Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The surface ridge will persist
through the middle of next week. A weak front will meander just
to the north of the discussion area of the northwest waters
tonight through Sunday, then sink south into the waters late
Sunday through Monday night where it will dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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