[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Tropical Atlantic with axis extending
from 10N54W to 02N51W, moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with a low amplitude 700 mb trough noted
in the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated
moderate convection prevails between 50W-60W.

A tropical wave moving over Venezuela with axis from 12N65W to
04N66W, moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is
embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated moderate convection prevails
in the northern portion of the wave mainly N of 08N between 63W-
69W.

A tropical wave is moving across the W Caribbean with axis from
21N86W to a 1013 mb low near 17N87W to 12N87W, moving WNW near 15
kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb
trough noted in the global models and is embedded within a broad
area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the proximity
of the low from 16N-19N between 86W-89W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 22N17W to 07N31W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection is along and S
of the monsoon trough mainly E of 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is over the W Gulf near 22N97W covering the
western half of the basin. A smaller upper-level low is centered
over the NE Gulf near 27N85W. At the surface, a ridge extends
across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high near 30N86W. A surface
trough extends across the Florida Peninsula from 25N82W to 28N80W.
Isolated convection prevails along this boundary. Scatterometer
data depicts a gentle anticyclonic flow across the whole basin.
Expect during the next 24 hours for a surface low to approach the
Bay of Campeche from the SE with convection. Surface ridging will
prevail elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave/low pressure are moving W across the western
Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for more details. The
broad surface high pressure that prevails across the Atlantic also
extends over the Caribbean waters. Low-level moisture transported
by the moderate to fresh trades is generating isolated convection
across the whole basin. The proximity of the Monsoon trough N of
Panama is supporting isolated moderate convection S of 12N and W
of 80W. A tropical wave currently over Venezuela is enhancing
convection S of 12 and E of 67W. Expect within the next 24 hours
for winds to increase to fresh to strong mainly across the central
portion of the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...

An area of diffluence aloft is generating isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the island. Lingering moisture and daytime
heating will produce showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
again on Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad area of high pressure prevails across the whole basin. A
surface trough extends across the southern portion of the Florida
Peninsula from 25N82W to 28N80W. Isolated convection prevails S of
the trough affecting the far W Atlantic waters and the Bahamas. To
the E, another surface trough extends from 30N47W to 22N37W.
Isolated showers are observed within this boundary. A low-
amplitude tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Please
refer to the section above for details. Little change is expected
across the basin within the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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