[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211136
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Danielle was downgraded to a remnant low at
21/0900 UTC. The remnants of Danielle are centered near 20.6N
99.3W at 21/0900 UTC or about 110 nm west-southwest of Tuxpan,
Mexico moving west-southwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1014 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 20 kt with
gusts to 30 kt.  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are southwest of a line running from northeast Mexico near
24N98W to the Yucatan near 19N91W. This will be the last
advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Danielle.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 38W
from 4N-10N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is
within 45 nm of 9N between 36W-40W.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along
48W/49W from 3N-10N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on
the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated moderate
convection is within 45 nm of a line from 7N42W to 9N49W.

Tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending from Haiti
near 19N73W to the coast of Colombia near 10N75W moving west 15
to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb
trough noted in the global models and is embedded within a broad
area of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
north of a line 15N69W to 19N78W to over the Greater Antilles.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N16W along 10N19W to 6N23W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 4N31W to east of the first tropical wave
near 5N37W, resumes west of the wave near 6N40W to east of the
next tropical wave near 4N47W, then resumes west of the wave
near 4N51W to South America near 6N56W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are from 5N-8N between
12W-17W and from 5N-8N between 47W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The remnants of Danielle continue to produce showers and
thunderstorms over Mexico and over the southwest Gulf. See
special features above. An upper ridge is anchored over north
Texas with a ridge axis extending east to the coast of North
Carolina. An upper trough over the west Atlantic extends across
Florida south of Lake Okeechobee into the southeast Gulf to the
Yucatan peninsula near 21N90W. The upper trough is supporting a
stationary front that extends across the Bahamas to the Straits
of Florida near 25N80W. Lingering moisture over the remainder of
the Straits are generating isolated showers and thunderstorms
south of 24N east of 82W. A surface trough extends from the
Florida panhandle near 30N84.5W to 24N83W with isolated showers
and thunderstorms within 60 nm west of the trough axis south of
27N. The upper features are giving most of the Gulf north flow
aloft except in the southeast Gulf. A surface ridge covers the
north Gulf anchored by a 1023 mb high over south Alabama and by
a 1022 mb high in the west Atlantic. Surface ridge will persist
through tonight, then shift south to along 28N Wednesday and
Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper trough covers the west Caribbean west of 71W while an
upper ridge anchored just east of Trinidad covers the remainder
of the Caribbean. This is creating a diffluent environment over
the north-central Caribbean and enhancing the activity
associated with the tropical wave. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms dot the area north of 14N between 68W-
80W. The monsoon trough extends across the southwest Caribbean
along 10N west of 77W to across Costa Rica generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 12N to over Panama
and Costa Rica between Colombia and Nicaragua. Tropical wave
will move across the central Caribbean through today, then
across the west Caribbean tonight and Wednesday night. Fresh to
strong trade winds will expand in coverage across the east and
central Caribbean through Wednesday and gradually shift westward
across the basin, then persisting there through the end of the
week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms remain
across the island this morning thanks to upper level divergence
and a tropical wave over Haiti. Lingering moisture with showers
and thunderstorms will persist through early Wednesday when the
upper level divergence and tropical wave will be west of the
island. Wednesday afternoon could still see showers and
thunderstorms due to daytime heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough is over the west Atlantic extending through
32N73W across Florida south of Lake Okeechobee into the east
Gulf of Mexico supporting a stationary front across Bermuda
along 29N67W to 26N73W, then across the north Bahama islands to
25N80W. A surface trough is south of the front extending from
26N70W to 22N73W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are south of the front to a line from the Mona Passage near
18N67W to 27N65W including the Bahama Islands and the Turks and
Caicos. A surface ridge covers the remainder of the west
Atlantic west of front with a 1022 mb high near 32N75W. The
remainder of the Atlantic east of the front is dominated by a
surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high near 34N48W. West
Atlantic front will gradually dissipate through Thursday night
as a surface ridge becomes established along 30N to northeast
Florida. The surface trough northeast of Bahamas will move west
across the remainder of the Bahama Islands through Wednesday
night while weakening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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