[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201813 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Danielle was located near 20.7N 96.3W at 1500 UTC
and is moving west at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
found over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico S of 24N and west of
93W. The center of Danielle is expected to move inland over
eastern Mexico later today or tonight. Little change in strength
is expected before Danielle makes landfall in Mexico later
today. Danielle is expected to weaken after landfall. See the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the tropical central Atlantic with axis
near 33W from 04N-12N, moving W at around 20 kt during the last
24 hours. The wave still coincides with weak 700 mb troughing
between 25W and 35W according to the GFS model. Saharan dry air
and dust are impinging the northern part of the wave and strong
deep layer wind shear are limiting convection to isolated
coverage.

A tropical wave is over the tropical central Atlantic with axis
near 44W from 02N-10N, moving W around 20 kt. The wave coincides
with broad 700 mb troughing between 38W and 51W according to the
GFS model. Saharan dry air and dust are impinging the northern
portion of the wave. In the southern wave environment, weak deep
layer wind shear, moderate moisture and divergent winds at the
upper levels support scattered convection between 03N and 07N
between 43W and 48W.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis near 66W
from 10N-19N, moving W around 20 kt during the past 24 hours.
This wave is generating showers and tstms over the Lesser
Antilles, Virgin Islands. Puerto Rico, the eastern Dominican
Republic and the adjacent waters. The wave is associated with
abundant moisture as indicated by SSMI TPW imagery. The wave
lies beneath upper-level divergence. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection associated with the wave is located from 13N
to 19N between 64W and 72W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis near 75W
from 11N-19N, moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is situated
beneath an upper-level trough which is producing strong upper-
level convergence and wind shear which is limiting the coverage
of convection to isolated.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to
08N22W. The ITCZ axis continues from 08N22W to 03N32W to 05N41W.
The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave from 05N45W to 05N51W.
Besides convection associated with tropical waves, scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is present along the coasts
of Guinea and Sierra Leone in west Africa from 07N to 10N
between 13W to 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The main concern in the basin is T.S. Danielle, which is
currently centered over the western Bay of Campeche. See the
special features section above for more details. Otherwise...
surface ridging extends southwestward over the Gulf from the
Florida Big Bend is maintaining quieter weather over the central
Gulf. Weak surface troughing is producing scattered moderate
convection over the northeastern Gulf between the Mississippi
delta to western Cuba.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main features across the basin are two tropical waves, one
with axis near 66W and the other in the eastern Caribbean with
axis near 76W. The easternmost wave is generating showers and
tstms over the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands. Puerto Rico and
the adjacent waters. The westernmost wave is situated beneath an
upper-level trough which is suppressing convection. See the
tropical waves section above for additional details. In the SW
basin, the monsoon trough continues to support scattered
moderate isolated strong convection S of 11N over Colombia,
Panama, Costa Rica and the adjacent coastal waters. Strong pres
gradient between ridging NE of the basin and lower pres in the
central, eastern, and SW Caribbean continues to generate fresh
to strong east to northeast trades from 11N to 17N between 65W
and 87W. The strongest winds are occurring in the
climatologically favored area along the coast of Colombia.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave with an axis near 66W is interacting with an
upper-level trough extending southward from the Windward Passage
into the central Caribbean to produce showers and thunderstorms
over eastern portions of the Dominican Republic. See the
tropical waves section for more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface low is centered near the northern edge of the
discussion area at 30N67W. An attendant frontal boundary curves
southwestward from the low to E of Key West Florida near 25N80W.
Scattered moderate convection is present along and up to 180 nm
SE of the front. The frontal boundary has begun to weaken and
will eventually become a trough tonight.

Other than convection associated with tropical waves, the
remainder of the basin remains under the influence of surface
ridging extending southwestward from a 1032 mb high centered
over the mid Atlc at 34N44W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
cam
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