[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
616 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Four is located near 20.2N 95.9W at 0900 UTC
and is moving west at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt. Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are S
of 22N west of 94W. Scattered showers are elsewhere S of 26N W of
90W. The center of the depression is expected to move inland over
eastern Mexico later today or tonight. However, some strengthening
is still expected, and the depression could become a tropical
storm before it makes landfall in Mexico later today. See the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the tropical central Atlantic with axis near
33W from 03N-13N, moving W at 15-20 kt during the last 24 hours.
The wave coincides with weak 700 mb troughing between 25W and 35W
according to the GFS model. Saharan dry air and dust are in the
northern wave environment as well as strong deep layer wind shear.
This is limiting the convection to scattered showers from 06N-07N
between 30W and 34W.

A tropical wave is in the tropical central Atlantic with axis near
41W from 02N-11N, moving W near 15 kt. The wave coincides with
broad 500 mb troughing between 30W and 54W according to the GFS
model. Saharan dry air and dust are in the northern wave
environment. In the southern wave environment, weak deep layer
wind shear, moderate moisture and diffluent wind at the upper
levels support scattered showers from 03N-07N between 35W and 46W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 66W
from 09N-19N, moving W at 20 kt during the past 24 hours. The
wave is associated with abundant moisture as indicated by SSMI TPW
imagery and is under a diffluent environment aloft that supports
numerous showers and isolated tstms from 12N-18N between 59W and
67W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 70W
from 11N-19N, moving W at 20 kt during the past 24 hours. The wave
has not moved much during the last few hours and it is possible
that it will merge with the wave in the eastern Caribbean, which
is advancing W faster. The wave is associated with moderate
moisture, however strong deep layer wind shear in this region of
the basin limits the convection to isolated showers and tstms N of
15N between 67W and 72W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
04N23W. The ITCZ axis begins near 04N23W and continues to 04N39W.
It then resumes W of a tropical wave from 05N43W to 06N57W.
Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, a
cluster of heavy showers and tstms is from 07N-10N E of 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The main concern in the basin is T.D. Four currently centered over
the western Bay of Campeche, which is expected to intensify to a
T.S. later today or tonight. Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms
are S of 22N west of 94W. Scattered showers are elsewhere S of 26N
W of 90W. Seas in its vicinity are near 12 ft. See the special
features section above for more details. The tail of a stationary front
currently over SW N Atlc waters extends from 24N80W to 24N81W and
support isolated showers across the Florida straits. Surface
ridging has built across the remainder basin. Scatterometer data
show fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds within 90 nm off
the western Florida peninsula coast and mainly moderate easterlies
elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main features across the basin are two tropical waves, one with
axis near 70W and the other in the eastern Caribbean with axis
near 66W. The easternmost wave is generating numerous heavy
showers and isolated tstms currently affecting the Lesser
Antilles, Virgin Islands and adjacent waters. Scattered showers
and tstms are across Puerto Rico and will increase in coverage as
the wave continues to move fast westward to possibly merge with
the wave near 70W later this morning. Moderate to fresh
easterlies are behind this wave axis. See the tropical waves
section above for further details. In the SW basin, the monsoon
trough continues to support scattered heavy showers and tstms S of
12N as indicated by GOES lighting density data. Strong pres
gradient between ridging NE of the basin and lower pres in the
central, eastern and SW Caribbean continue to support fresh to
strong easterlies from 11N to 15N between 72W and 79W, with
possible near gale-force winds along the coast of Colombia.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave with axis near 70W currently supports scattered
showers mainly across the Dominican Republic southern adjacent
waters. This wave has nearly stalled during the last few hours,
but is expected to merge with a much faster wave to the E that
will bring heavy showers across the Island today. See tropical
waves section for further details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level low over the NW Atlc and associated trough
extending S to a base over the south-central Caribbean support a
1015 mb low near 29N67W, from which a stationary front extends
along 24N72W to the Florida straits near 24N81W. GOES lighting
density data indicate the presence of scattered to isolated heavy
showers and tstms within 140 nm ahead of the front. Similar
convection is farther east from 23N to 28N between 61W-64W.
Scattered showers are S of 21N between 61W and 66W associated
with a tropical wave that moves across the eastern Caribbean. The
remainder basin is under the influence of a surface ridge,
anchored by a 1031 mb high near the Azores islands. The stationary front
is forecast to weaken today.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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