[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Four is located near 20.1N 95.4W at 0300 UTC
and is moving west at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are S of 26N west of 89W. The
center of the depression is expected to move inland over eastern
Mexico on Monday. However, some strengthening is expected, and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm early Monday.
See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the tropical central Atlantic with axis near
32W from 03N-12N, moving W at 15-20 kt during the last 24 hours. The
wave coincides with weak 700 mb troughing between 25W and 35W
according to the GFS model. Saharan dry air and dust are in the
northern wave environment as well as strong deep layer wind shear.
This is limiting the convection to scattered showers from 05N-07N
between 30W and 33W.

A tropical wave is in the tropical central Atlantic with axis near
40W from 02N-12N, moving W near 10 kt. The wave coincides with
broad 500 mb troughing between 30W and 54W according to the GFS
model. Saharan dry air and dust are in the northern wave
environment. In the southern wave environment, weak deep layer
wind shear, moderate moisture and diffluent wind at the upper
levels support scattered showers from 03N-07N between 35W and 45W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 64W
from 10N-19N, moving W at 20 kt during the past 24 hours. The wave
is associated with abundant moisture as indicated by SSMI TPW
imagery and is under a diffluent environment aloft that supports
numerous showers and isolated tstms from 11N-20N between 60W and
67W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 69W
from 11N-19N, moving W at 20 kt during the past 24 hours. The wave
has not moved much during the last several hours and it is
possible that it will merge with the wave in the eastern
Caribbean, which is advancing W faster. The wave is associated
with moderate moisture, however strong deep layer wind shear in
this region of the basin limits the convection to isolated showers
and tstms N of 14N between 67W and 71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N13W to
04N23W. The ITCZ axis begins near 04N23W and continues to 03N38W.
For information about convection, see the tropical waves section
above.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The main concern in the basin is T.D. Four currently centered over
the western Bay of Campeche, which is expected to intensify to a
T.S. later this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
S of 26N west of 89W and seas in its vicinity are near 12 ft. See
the special features section above for more details. The tail of a
cold front currently over SW N Atlc waters extends from 25N81W to
25N82W and generates scattered showers across the Florida straits. Surface
ridging has built across the remainder basin. Scatterometer data
show fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds within 90 nm off
the western Florida peninsula coast and mainly moderate easterlies
elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main features across the basin are two tropical waves, one with
axis near 69W and the other in the eastern Caribbean with axis
near 64W. The easternmost wave is generating numerous heavy
showers and isolated tstms currently affecting the Lesser
Antilles, Virgin Islands and adjacent waters. Scattered showers
and tstms are across Puerto Rico and will increase in coverage as
the wave continues to move fast westward to possibly merge with
the wave near 69W later this morning. Moderate to fresh easterlies
are behind this wave axis mainly N of 13N. See the tropical waves section
above for further details. In the SW basin, the monsoon trough
continues to support scattered heavy showers and tstms S of 12N as
indicated by GOES lighting density data. Strong pres gradient
between ridging NE of the basin and lower pres in the central and SW
Caribbean continue to support fresh to strong easterlies from 11N
to 16N between 70W and 80W, with near gale-force winds along the
coast of Colombia.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave with axis near 69W currently supports scattered to
isolated showers and tstms mainly across the Dominican Republic.
This wave has nearly stalled during the last several hours, but is
expected to merge with a much faster wave to the E that will bring
heavy showers across the Island Monday. See tropical waves section
for further details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level low over the NW Atlc and associated trough
extending S to a base over the south-central Caribbean support a
1015 mb low near 29N68W, from which a cold front extends along
25N74W to southern Florida near 25N80W. GOES lighting density data
indicate the presence of scattered to isolated heavy showers and
tstms within 120 nm ahead of the front. Similar convection is
farther east S of 23N between 60W and 65W associated with a
tropical wave that moves across the eastern Caribbean. The
remainder basin is under the influence of a surface ridge,
anchored by a 1033 mb high near the Azores islands. The cold front
is forecast to stall near sunrise today.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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