[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1228 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Surface low pressure is centered over the central Bay of
Campeche near 20N95W. This system is producing widespread
cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan peninsula
and Gulf of Mexico S of 24N and W of 88W. The low is moving west
to west-northwestward around 10 mph and is forecast to reach the
Veracruz coast of Mexico on Monday. Upper-level winds remain
only marginally conducive for development. However, there is
still a high chance for a tropical depression to form from this
system during the next day or so. Please refer to the Atlantic
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS header TWOAT or WMO header
ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the E tropical Atlantic south of the
Cape Verde Islands. The axis of the wave is near 25W from 01N to
10N, moving W at 15 kt during the last 24 hours. The wave
coincides with minimal 700 mb troughing between 20W and 27W
according to the GFS model. Upper-level winds above this system
show little in the way of convergence or divergence. Only
isolated deep convection is associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is over the E tropical Atlantic. The axis of the
wave is near 35W from 02N to 12N, moving W at 15 kt during the
last 24 hours. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing
between 25W and 37W according to the GFS model. Divergent upper-
level winds in the vicinity of the wave are generating scattered
moderate convection from 01N to 07N between 34W to 39W.

A tropical wave is over the W tropical Atlantic. The axis of the
wave is near 58W from 07N to 15N, moving W at 20 kt during the
past 24 hours. Divergent upper-level winds in the vicinity of
the wave are generating scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection over the Windward Islands from 10N to 17N between 57W
and 63W.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. The axis of the wave is
near 68W from 11N to 18N, moving W at 15 kt during the past 24
hours.  The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between
70W and 80W according to the GFS model. The wave is interacting
with a mid to upper-level trough over the central Caribbean.
This interaction is producing scattered moderate convection over
and S of Puerto Rico from 14N to 19N between 64W and 68W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
07N23W. The ITCZ axis begins near 05N27W and continues along
02N40W to 02N49W. Aside from the convection associated with
tropical waves, no significant convection is associated with the
monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A low pressure system is centered over the central Bay of
Campeche near 20N95W. The low is producing widespread
cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan peninsula
and Gulf of Mexico S of 24N and W of 88W. Please see the special
features section for details. Fresh to near gale-force E to SE
winds are occurring over the Bay of Campeche. Showers will
continue in the Bay of Campeche during the next couple of days
associated with the area of low pressure discussed in special
features. A weakening stationary boundary stretches from the
mouth of the Mississippi to southern Florida. This boundary is
expected to dissipate by Monday evening. Otherwise...weak
ridging is present between the low over the Bay of Campeche and
the stationary front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface low pressure centered over the central Bay of Campeche
is producing cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms over the
Yucatan peninsula eastward to the far NW Caribbean along the
coast of Belize. A tropical wave continues to move over the
eastern Caribbean waters. The wave is generating showers over
and S of Puerto Rico. A second tropical wave is bringing
abundant moisture to the Windward Islands. See the tropical
waves section for more details on both of these waves. A strong
pres gradient continues to generate strong to near gale NE to E
winds N of Colombia from 11N to 14N between 72W and 76W. Fresh
to strong E winds are present over the Gulf of Honduras S of 18N.

...HISPANIOLA...

Shower coverage still remains low over the island. However,
shower coverage will increase tonight and Monday as a tropical
wave approaching from the east interacts with a mid to upper
level trough lingering over the island. Chances for scattered to
heavy showers will increase accordingly during this time frame.
See the tropical waves section for more details on the tropical
wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level trough extends southward over the far W
Atlc with a base near 26N75W. Associated surface low pressure is
centered near 29N68W. A cold front extends southwestward from
the low to the Florida coast near 26N80W. Scattered moderate
convection is present along and up to 200 nm SE of the front N
of 27N. The front will stall over the northern Bahamas tonight,
then weaken on Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, surface ridging
and fair weather prevails across the remainder of the basin.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
cam
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