[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160949
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
549 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 04N30W to 11N30W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb trough noted in global model fields
between 27W-36W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along
the wave axis near 07N. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-
07N between 30W-35W.

Tropical wave extends from 06N48W to 12N47W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with broad
700 mb troughing between 43W-52W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 02N-10N between 45W-51W.

Tropical wave extends from 04N76W to 11N76W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave remains across inland Colombia on the southern periphery
of a mid-level ridge anchored near 22N71W. No significant deep
convection is associated with the wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 11N86W to 18N86W moving W-NW at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing over Central America and
the NW Caribbean Sea between 84W-89W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 10N-21N between 78W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to
09N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N21W to 06N30W to 07N38W to 06N48W to 07N53W to 06N57W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 13W-
15W...and from 06N-10N between 33W-41W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-11N between 51W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A broad upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery centered
over the SE Gulf near 26N83W and an upper level ridge axis
extends from over southern Texas near 27N99W NE to over coastal
Louisiana. Between these features primarily northeasterly winds
aloft prevail that promote overall stability for the basin this
morning. Otherwise...a surface ridge extending from the SW North
Atlc region along 26N/27N to the Texas coast is maintaining
gentle to fresh anticyclonic winds. This overall synoptic pattern
is expected to persist through Friday night. Thereafter...an area
of low pressure is expected to develop offshore of the Carolinas
Saturday draping a frontal boundary along 30N E of 90W that
pushes southward then eastward through Sunday night across much
of the Florida peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Southwesterly flow aloft prevails across the NW Caribbean between
an upper level low anchored over the SE Gulf of Mexico near 26N83W
and an upper level anticyclonic circulation centered over the SW
Caribbean near 12N77W. The additional presence of a tropical wave
along 86W is providing focus for scattered showers and tstms
across the Caribbean waters from 10N-21N between 78W-86W. While
the tropical wave is expected to track W-NW during the next couple
of days...increased probability of precipitation is expected for
much of northern Central America and the Yucatan peninsula region
through the upcoming weekend. Otherwise...the eastern Caribbean is
under mostly stable and dry conditions aloft with generally
moderate to fresh trades E of 70W. The strongest trades due to a
strengthened pressure gradient as ridging builds across the
central Atlc will persist between 70W-82W at fresh to strong
levels.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently skies this morning are fair with tranquil conditions
expected through the day on Thursday. An upper level low is
centered NE of the island near 20N67W that is expected to develop
further and then retrograde over the region Thursday and Friday.
Increased probability of convective precipitation is expected with
the favorable lifting dynamics in place through the remainder of
the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level low is centered over the SE Gulf of Mexico this
morning that is providing diffluent flow aloft over the Bahamas
and adjacent coastal waters. As a result...isolate showers and
tstms are occurring S of 28N W of 75W. Otherwise...a surface
ridge remains anchored across the SW North Atlc focused on a 1021
mb high centered near 23N60W. The only exception to the ridging
across the discussion area is along 30N between 50W-64W as a
dissipating stationary front is analyzed from 32N52W to 30N63W
with isolated showers possible N of 29N within 120 nm either side
of the boundary. Farther east...the remainder of the central and
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by
a 1027 mb high centered near 37N30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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