[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis
along 28W from 01N to 09N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a
large area of low level moisture as noted on SSMI composite TPW
imagery. The wave is also well depicted from the surface through
700 mb levels. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-09N
between 29W-34W.

A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with axis
from 12N43W to 05N47W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is embedded
in a large moist environment as noted by SSMI composite TPW
imagery. The wave is also well depicted at the 700 mb level.
Isolated moderate convection is east of the wave axis from 04N-
08N between 42W-46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is west of the wave axis from 06N-10N between 49W-57W

A tropical wave is inland over South America with axis along 72W
from 03N to 10N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave has low amplitude
and is embedded in a moderate moist environment. Scattered
moderate convection is west of the wave axis over N Colombia
from 05N-11N between 73W-77W.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean and Central
America with axis along 84W from 06N to 16N, moving WNW at 20
kt. The wave is in a large area of low level moisture as noted
on SSMI composite TPW imagery. The wave is also well depicted
from the surface through 700 mb levels. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 10N-18N between 80W-88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
a 1015 mb low at 04N24W. The ITCZ extends from 04N30W to 06N47W
to the coast of South America near 05N54W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate convection is near the coast of W Africa from 06N-10N
between 09W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near
27N87W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic surface flow is over the Gulf.
Isolated moderate convection is inland over Florida, and inland
over the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SE Gulf, and
W Cuba from 22N-25N east of 85W. In the upper levels, an upper
level ridge is over the western Gulf west of 90W. An upper level
low is centered over the SE Gulf near 24N84W. Upper level
diffluence SE of the center is enhancing the convection over the
Straits of Florida ,and W Cuba. Expect over the next 24 hours
for the surface high to dissipate. Also expect scattered showers
and thunderstorms to persist over Florida, the SE Gulf, and W
Cuba.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over N Colombia, and another is over the
western Caribbean and Central America. See above. 10-30 kt
tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean with
strongest winds over the central Caribbean, and the weakest
winds over the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over the whole island of Cuba. Scattered
moderate convection is over Hispaniola. Further east, scattered
showers are over Puerto Rico. Expect over the next 24 hours for
the tropical wave to move WNW with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered moderate convection is over the higher
elevations of Hispaniola due in part to upper level diffluence.
Expect a decrease in convection over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has dipped over the western Atlantic from 31N56W to
29N60W to 31N70W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
front. a 1023 mb high is centered north of the Leeward Islands
near 23N62W. A 1029 mb high is centered over the eastern
Atlantic near 38N30W. Of note in the upper levels, the base of a
very large upper level trough is over the western Atlantic north
of 25N between 47W-70W with isolated moderate convection from
24N-29N between 53W-63W. Expect the cold front to move east to
31N48W in 24 hours with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
FORMOSA
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