[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 07N19W to 12N20W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb low noted in global model fields
in the vicinity of 06N24W and a maximum in 850 mb relative
vorticity along the wave axis near 07N. A weak 1016 mb surface low
is centered at the southern extent of the wave axis and was noted
in as earlier scatterometer pass around 14/2214 UTC. Scattered
moderate convection is west of the wave from 02N-08N between 24W-
30W.

Tropical wave extends from 06N45W to 13N41W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with broad
700 mb troughing between 39W-47W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 07N-10N between 42W-47W.

Tropical wave extends from 02N68W to 10N68W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave remains across inland western Venezuela and eastern
Colombia on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored
near 21N62W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-10N between
67W-72W.

Tropical wave extends from 06N81W to 15N81W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing over the SW Caribbean
Sea between 78W-84W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-
16N between 75W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from near 07N19W to 05N30W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N30W to 06N45W
to 06N53W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-09N between
46W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Northerly flow prevails over the basin this morning between a
middle to upper level low centered over the Florida Straits near
25N81W and an upper level ridge axis extending from over northern
Mexico near 25N104W to over the lower Mississippi River valley
near 33N91W. The overall stability supports a 1017 mb high
centered across the eastern Gulf with generally gentle to fresh
anticyclonic flow occurring at this time. The ridging is expected
to persist across the basin through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level anticyclone is centered over the central Caribbean
near 16N75W with water vapor imagery indicating relatively dry
and stable conditions across the eastern Caribbean E of 72W.
However W of 72W...moist southwesterly flow aloft between the
upper level ridge and an upper level trough axis over the NW
Caribbean is generating isolated scattered showers and tstms from
18N-23N between 74W-85W. In addition the presence of a tropical
wave along 81W is focusing convection across the SW Caribbean
waters S of 17N between 73W-85W...including portions of northern
Colombia...Nicaragua...and Honduras. Otherwise...trade winds
remain strongest between 64W-78W in the range of fresh to strong
due to a strengthened pressure gradient while the remainder of the
waters are within moderate to fresh levels. The existing gradient
will gradually slide westward through Thursday as ridging builds
from the central Atlc to the SW North Atlc region north of the
basin.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently lingering cloudiness from earlier precipitation is
across the island this morning. An upper level trough axis is
expected to move south from the SW North Atlc region through
Wednesday night with a low developing aloft and then retrograding
Thursday and Friday. Increased probability of convective
precipitation is expected with the favorable lifting dynamics in
place through the remainder of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough axis extends from 32N56W SW to
24N73W supporting an area of increased cloudiness and isolated
showers and tstms from 26N-29N between 55W-64W. Near the western
extent of the troughing...an upper level low is centered over the
Florida Straits near 25N81W providing widely scattered showers
and isolated tstms across Cuba and the SW North Atlc waters S of
26N between 72W-80W. West of the trough axis however...a dry and
stable airmass prevails anchored on an upper level anticyclone
centered near 28N75W. One exception is a weak cold front analyzed
from 32N58W to 30N63W that becomes stationary to 30N73W. Isolated
showers are occurring within 60 nm either side of the front E of
70W. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc
is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb
high centered near 23N60W and a 1028 mb high centered near
35N34W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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