[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across western Africa with axis along
06W, moving W at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave
coincides with weak troughing at 700 mb and low moisture in its
surroundings as noted on LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb. No
convection is associated with it at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis near
32W from 01N to 08N, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is low amplitude and is embedded in a low to moderate
moist environment. Isolated showers are within 120 nm either side
of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the west tropical Atlantic with axis near
56W S of 15N, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. A moderate
moist environment from the surface to 850 mb is indicated by CIRA
LPW imagery that along with a divergent environment aloft support
scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms S of 15N between 53W
and 62W.

A tropical wave is moving across Central America into the EPAC
with axis near 86W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours.
Abundant moisture in the region support scattered heavy showers
and isolated tstms from 11N-18N between 80W and 86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
08N20W to 06N29W. The ITCZ extends from 04N34W to 01N45W. Beside
the convection associated with the tropical wave. Scattered
showers are from 04N-10N between 20W and 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging dominates in the SE CONUS and adjacent Atlantic
waters and extends SW across Florida and the Gulf, thus providing
mostly gentle to moderate SE flow basin-wide. In the SW Gulf
waters, a weak surface trough extends from 24N92W to the Bay of
Campeche near 18N95W. Moisture advection from the Caribbean by SE
flow along with a divergent environment aloft support scattered
showers and isolated tstms S of 24N W of the trough axis and
isolated showers E of it. No major changes expected during the
next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination of an upper-level low and a tropical wave
moving across Central America is supporting scattered heavy
showers and isolated tstms across the SW Caribbean and the NW
basin S of 19N. See the tropical waves section above for details
about the convection. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate trades in the W and E Caribbean and fresh to strong in
the South-central waters from 11N-16N between 68W and 82W. Expect
during the next 24 hours for an increase of tropical moisture
across the Windward Islands with the approach of a tropical wave.
The convection over the SW Caribbean will weaken as the upper-
level low moves west.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island favored by subsidence of
dry air from aloft and strong deep layer wind shear. Similar
conditions are expected through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb surface high is centered over the western Atlantic near
33N74W. SE of this feature, a cold front extends from 30N56W to
25N68W. Scattered showers are within 200 nm either side of the
front. The Azores high dominates elsewhere being anchored by a
1027 mb high centered near 32N32W. Two tropical waves are moving
across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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