[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave is in the eastern tropical Atlc with axis extending
from 03N-10N along 17W. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb
troughing. A moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb
and upper divergence in the wave vicinity support scattered heavy
showers and isolated tstms from 02N-10N E of 26W.

Tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlc with axis from
02N-11N along 44W, moving W at 20 kt within a 24 hour period.
Patches of shallow moisture are in the wave environment, mainly W
of the wave axis where scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms
are from 05N-08N to 54W.

Tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis extending S of 15N
along 78W, moving W at 15 kt within a 24 hour period. An elongated upper
level low centered S of Jamaica along with abundant moisture in
the region support scattered heavy showers and tstms N of 14N
between 74W and 80W and numerous heavy showers and tstms S of 12N
between 77W and 81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 07N18W to 06N28W where the ITCZ
begins and then continues along 05N35W to 04N42W. The ITCZ then
resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N46W to 04N52W. For
information about convection see the tropical waves section above.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Surface low pressure continues to dominate the
basin. Aloft, a trough over the NW Atlc with base near 30N
supports a weak stationary front across the northern Florida
Peninsula to 29N83W to 28N90W where it starts to dissipate to
26N95W. Strong deep layer wind shear and dry air subsidence in the
NW and North- central Gulf hinder convection in the vicinity of
the front. Remnant moisture associated with a formal trough that
dissipated near sunrise today and the continuation of divergent
flow aloft support isolated showers in the SE region of the Gulf S
of 27N E of 87W. In the Yucatan Peninsula, a surface trough
extends near 89W and support numerous showers and tstms inland and
within 60 nm off its coast. The latest scatterometer data and
surface observations show gentle variable winds basin-wide. The
front is forecast to gradually become diffuse through Friday night
with high pressure building west from the SW North Atlc region
into the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE winds are expected through
the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Diffluent flow generated by an elongated upper
low centered S of Jamaica and a ridge centered NE of Hispaniola in
the Atlc and abundant shallow moisture continue to support
scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms across central and
southern Cuba and adjacent southern waters. Scattered to isolated
showers are in the Windward Passage being enhanced by a surface
trough that extends N to Turks and Caicos Islands. Heavier showers
are occuring in the SW Caribbean associated with a tropical wave.
See tropical waves section for details. Fair weather is in the
eastern Caribbean as surface ridging and dry air subsidence
provide stability. The pres gradient between the surface ridge
that extends from the central Atlc and lower pres associated with
the wave support fresh to strong winds in the south-central basin.
See the NHC high seas forecast for more details. The tropical wave
will move to the western basin Thu near sunrise. Fresh to strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean will continue through theweekend.

...HISPANIOLA...
Moisture associated with a surface trough in
the Windward passage along with diffluence aloft between an upper
ridge NE of Hispaniola and a low centered S of Jamaica support
isolated showers mainly across the western half of the island. As
the influence from the trough moves west and an upper level ridge
builds over the region...drier and more stable conditions will
develop and dominate during the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad middle to upper level troughing is across much of the
western North Atlc and supports a stationary front analyzed into
the discussion area near 30N70W and extends W-SW to 28N81W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms are occurring W of 70W, except in the
southern Bahamas and NE adjancent waters. The central and eastern
Atlc is under the influence of a broad surface ridge anchored by
a 1024 mb high centered near 29N39W. One exception to the ridging
is a dissipating stationary front extending S-SW from 30N27W to
22N40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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