[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091134
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 40W
from 3N-11N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a
weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends from the Turks and Caicos
near 21N73W across Haiti to Colombia near 10N74W moving west-
northwest 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides
with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
The wave remains an area of upper difflunce. No associated deep
convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 17N16W along 16N18W 10N19W to 7N22W where the ITCZ
begins and continues along 7N31W to east of the tropical wave
near 6N38W then resumes west of the wave near 5N42W to South
America near 2N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
from 5N-9N between 11W-16W including portions of Sierra Leone.
Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
from 4N-9N between 16W-20W, within 150 nm north of the ITCZ
between 24W-34W, and within 75 nm along the coast of South
America between 51W-56W. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are from 6N-9N between 35W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper trough covers the far northeast CONUS into the
northwest Atlantic supporting a cold front that extends across
the west Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico as a stationary front
from Jacksonville to north of Cedar Key near 30N83W just off the
north Gulf coast to over southeast Louisiana near Vermilion Bay.
Isolated showers are along the frontal boundary. An upper ridge
anchored over west Cuba extends over the southeast Gulf south of
27N east of 90W giving the Gulf southwest flow aloft. A surface
trough extends from the southeast Gulf near 25N83W through the
Yucatan Channel near 22N85W into the northwest Caribbean. A
second, a diurnal surface trough extends inland over the Yucatan
peninsula. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
are over the southeast Gulf south of 26N east of 89W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the northwest Gulf
from 27N-29N between 92W-96W. Weak pressure pattern will prevail
across the basin through the weekend. The surface trough in the
southeast Gulf will continue to enhance shower/thunderstorm
activity through Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored over western Cuba covers the
Caribbean north of 16N west of 81W. A surface trough extends
from the southeast Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel
near 22N85W to 19N86W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 60 nm along the coast of Belize.
Scattered showers are north of 19N west of 83W to over Cuba and
the northeast Yucatan peninsula. A weakening elongated upper low
is centered in the central Caribbean near 16N77W and extends a
trough axis north over east Cuba to 24N72W and south to 11N81W
generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm
along the coast of colombia south of 11N with isolated showers
and possible isolated thunderstorms south of 10N to over Panama
west of 80W. A second upper ridge is anchored over Puerto Rico
covering the remainder of the east Caribbean east of 73W. The
diffluent environment between these upper features is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 16N
between 69W-75W including all of Hispaniola. Fresh to
occasionally strong east winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras through Saturday. The
tropical wave will reach the west Caribbean this evening then
move inland across Central America this weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are across the
island this morning. The upper ridge to the east will shift west
over the island this afternoon. Scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms will continue through early Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge anchored over west Cuba extends into the west
Atlantic covering the area south of 28N east of 73W. The upper
trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front
that extends through 32N72W to 31N80W then across Florida near
Jacksonville and continue into the Gulf of Mexico. A remnant
surface trough extends into the west Atlantic through 32N68W to
across Florida near Cape Canaveral continuing into the Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered to numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms are
southeast of the surface trough to a line from Cuba near 23N80W
along 26N74W to beyond 32N61W. A weakening elongated upper low
in the Caribbean extends a trough axis north across east Cuba to
24N72W. An upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is
supporting a cold front north of the area then stationary front
along 32N27W to a weak 1018 mb low near 30N31W then continues as
a cold front to 24N36W then dissipates to 21N36W. Isolated
showers are possible within 45 nm southeast of the cold front. A
weak surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic
anchored by a 1022 mb high in the central Atlantic near 29N41W.
The west Atlantic cold front will merge with the surface trough
late tonight over the northern waters of the west Atlantic. The
surface ridge will shift east this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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