[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 076 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Colin is centered near 30.2N 82.6W at 07/0600 UTC
or about 70 nm east-northeast of Cedar Key , Florida and about
70 nm west-southwest of Jacksonville, Florida moving northeast
at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered
moderate/strong convection is from 28N-32N between 78W-83W
including northeast Florida and east Georgia. Scattered showers
and possible isolated thunderstorms are over the east Gulf of
Mexico east of 84W and the west Atlantic west of 77W. Please see
latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 27W
from 4N-10N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a
weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 64W
from 9N-18N moving west-northwest 15 to 20 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS
model and a broad surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. The wave is moving beneath an upper
trough masking the inverted trough on satellite imagery. No
associated deep convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 9N13W along 8N18W to east of the tropical wave
near 6N24W. The ITCZ begins west of wave near 7N29W and
continues along 6N33W to near 7N49W. Scattered moderate/isolated
strong convection is within 60/75 nm of line from 5N16W to the
coast of Africa near 7N11W. Clusters of scattered moderate/
isolated strong convection are within 120 nm north of the ITCZ
between 34W-49W and within 120/150 nm south of the ITCZ between
46W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The primary concern tonight is T.S. Colin moving across
northeast Florida. See special features above. A broad upper
trough covers the central and northeast CONUS extending a narrow
upper trough across east Texas and most of Mexico. The broad
upper trough is supporting a stationary front that enters the
northwest Gulf at 07/0300 UTC near Vermilion Bay, Louisiana to
28N92W then dissipates to 24N95W. Scattered showers and possible
isolated thunderstorms are north of 29N west of 91W to inland
over Louisiana and Texas. An upper ridge anchored in the
northwest Caribbean covers the east Gulf of Mexico. Colin will
has inland and is accelerating northeast. Majority of the high
winds and seas will occur across the eastern semicircle of the
storm. Winds will quickly diminish and seas will subside
gradually across the east Gulf late tonight through Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Yucatan Passage near 22N86W to
over the Yucatan peninsula along 19N87W to over northern
Guatemala. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are
inland over the Yucatan with scattered showers in the Caribbean
waters west of 86W. An upper ridge is anchored over the
northwestern Caribbean near 21N85W extending across west Cuba
into the the west Atlantic and covering the east Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are within 120 nm of line from Honduras near
16N85W to across Cuba near 22N82W. A cut off elongated upper low
is centered over the Mona Passage covering the east Caribbean
between 63W-74W. A second upper ridge is anchored in the
Tropical Atlantic covers the remainder of the east Caribbean
east of 63W. The diffluent environment between these upper
features is generating scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms southwest of line from Dominica to the ABC
Islands. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are expected in the
south-central Caribbean near Colombia and Venezuela through
Tuesday night then again Wednesday night. The tropical wave will
be in the central Caribbean by Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently skies are cleared across the island tonight. The
cutoff upper low over the Mona Passage will shift west across
the island through early Wednesday. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will return Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The primary concern tonight is T.S. Colin that is crossing
northeast Florida and will emerge into the far west Atlantic
Tuesday morning. The convection has already moved into the area
off the northeast Florida and Georgia coasts. See special
features above. The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends
across Cuba into the west Atlantic covering most of the west
Atlantic. A cut off elongated upper low is centered over the
Mona Passage and covers a small portion of the west Atlantic
south of 25N between 63W-70W. A remnant surface trough is in the
far east Atlantic extending from 31N18W to 27N26W. A weak
surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored
by a pair of 1021 mb highs in the east Atlantic near 24N31W and
the central Atlantic near 24N56W. T.S. Colin will continue
across northeast Florida/southeast Georgia overnight emerging
into the west Atlantic and be off the coast of South Carolina
later Tuesday morning then northeast of the area. Strong to near
gale force southwest winds will linger across the northern
waters of the west Atlantic Tuesday through Wednesday night.
Seas will gradually subside in response through Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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