[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Colin is centered near 27.0N 87.0W at 06/1500 UTC
or about 248 nm west-southwest of Tampa, Florida and about 196
nm southwest of Apalachicola, Florida. The system is moving
north-northeast at 15 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to
55 kt. An area of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms prevails east of the storm's center affecting the
Gulf of mexico and west Caribbean waters between 81W-86W. Please
see latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the east Tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 11N23W to 05N24W, moving west at about 10 to 15
kt over the past 24 hours. A decent moisture surge prevails east
of the wave's axis as noted on SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Despite this, no significant convection is related to
this wave.

A well defined tropical wave just entered the southeastern
Caribbean, with axis extending from 18N60W to 10N63W. This wave
has moved west about 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
Satellite imagery depicts clearly the position of this wave, and
SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery shows a moisture surge in
the environment of it. Scattered moderate convection prevails
along the wave mainly south of 18N between 58W-66W affecting
the Lesser Antilles.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 13N17W to 09N21W. The ITCZ begins west of a
tropical wave near 07N27W to 06N45W to 09N59W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N-13N between 39W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The primary concern at this time is T.S. Colin currently
centered over the east Gulf. Please refer to the section above
for details. An upper-level trough extends across southern Texas
and northern Mexico supporting a stationary front that extends
from 26N97W to 29N96W to 30N93W. South of this feature, a
surface trough is from 24N96W to 25N89W. Isolated convection
prevails across the western portion of the basin west of 90W.
During the next 24 hours, Colin will move northeast across the
Florida peninsula then into the west Atlantic. Convection, winds
and seas will diminish across the east Gulf Tuesday and
Wednesday as the system moves away.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The primary concern this morning is the area of
showers/thunderstorms associated with T.S. Colin affecting the
western Caribbean west of 83W. The strongest activity is moving
over western Cuba, where locally heavy rain and gusty winds are
already occurring. These conditions are expected to continue at
least through the next 12-24 hours. To the east, a tropical wave
is entering the southeast Caribbean enhancing convection east of
66W. Please refer to the section above for more details.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
whole basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for the convection
over the west Caribbean to diminish as Colin moves northeast.
The tropical wave will continue moving west with convection
affecting the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated convection is observed across the northern waters
supported by an upper-level trough that prevails across the west
Atlantic. This activity will move southwest enhancing afternoon
showers and thunderstorms across the island. Within the next 24
hours, a tropical wave will approach from the east enhancing
convection over the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

T.S. Colin is centered across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Its
convection is entering the west Atlantic affecting the waters
mainly west of 78W. To the east, a broad area of high pressure
prevails across the remainder of the basin, with a pair of 1022
mb surface highs centered near 24N46W and 25N31W. A weakening
cold front extends across the far east Atlantic from 27N26W to
31N19W with no significant convection. Two tropical waves were
analyzed across the basin. Please refer to the section above for
details. Expect during the next 24 hours for Colin to continue
moving northeast across the northern portion of the Florida
peninsula and entering the western Atlantic with convection.
Please see the section above for more details about this system.
Surface ridging will prevail elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net