[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051146
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 05 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Broad area of low pressure is over the northeast Yucatan
peninsula with a 1005 mb low centered near 19N88W. Conditions
appear to be favorable for some gradual development of this low
as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight. This
system has a high chance of tropical development over the next
48 hours. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during
the next few days. Currently, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are in the northwest Caribbean and the Yucatan
Channel from 18N-22N between 84W-87W with scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms dotting the area from 16N-23N
between 80W-88W including portions of Cuba and the Yucatan.
Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 17W
from 6N-11N moving west 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a
weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends from 12N52W
to the coast of South America near 5N54W moving west near 20 kt
over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with broad 700 mb trough
based on GFS model, a broad surge of moisture as seen on the
SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery, and is clearly seen on
satellite imagery as an inverted trough. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 90 nm either side of the
wave south of 9N to the coast of South America.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa to the coast near
14N17W. The ITCZ begins near 9N18W and continues along 6N31W
5N43W into South America near 5N52W. Clusters of scattered
moderate/isolated strong convection are from 4N-10N between 36W-
49W. The remainder of the activity is associated with the
Tropical Wave in the west Tropical Atlantic.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper low is centered over south Texas near 27N99W with a
1008 mb surface low along the coast of Texas near 29N95W. A
surface trough extends from this low along 29N93W 26N92W to
20N94W with scattered to numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms within 90/120 nm of line from 23N93W to inland
over the north Gulf coast near Mobile, Alabama. Scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms are south of 23N between 91W-97W.
Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms dot the the
remainder of the east Gulf. The activity south of 23N east of
88W is associated with the broad low pressure in the special
features section above. The low over the Yucatan will move north
today then northeast, possibly as a tropical cyclone, across the
east Gulf tonight and Monday then across northern Florida Monday
evening as it continues to deepen. Gale force winds are expected
east of 85W Sunday night through Monday evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored over the western Caribbean near
19N84W extending across Cuba and the Florida peninsula covering
the far east Gulf of Mexico and the west Atlantic. This is
enhancing the activity in the special features associated with
the low over the Yucatan. An upper trough over the west-central
Atlantic extends to the north coast of the Dominican Republic
generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The easterly trade winds
are generating isolated showers over the far southeast Caribbean
south of 15N east of 65W to over the Windward Islands. The
surface low over the Yucatan will move north today then
northeast, possibly as a tropical cyclone, into the Gulf of
Mexico tonight. Strong south to southeast winds are expected
south of west Cuba today as the low over the Yucatan deepens and
moves north. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are expected in
the south-central Caribbean near Colombia and Venezuela through
Monday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers persist across the island this morning. The
upper trough that extends from the west-central Atlantic to the
north coast of the Dominican Republic will shift south forming
an upper low of the Mona passage tonight and will continue to
generate scattered showers through Monday night. Afternoon
thunderstorms could develop during the evening hours today and
Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends a narrow ridge axis
across central Cuba and then the Florida peninsula covering the
west Atlantic west of 70W. An upper trough extends through
32N57W along 26N67W to the north coast of the Dominican Republic
with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms south
of 24N to over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands between 64W-
67W. A surface trough is just to the west extending from 25N71W
across the Turks and Caicos to the coast of northwest Haiti near
20N73W. A broad upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is
supporting a cold front that extends through 32N26W to 28N38W. A
surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored
by a 1021 mb high in the east-central Atlantic near 26N42W and a
extending ridge axis west-northwest to 30N75W. The ridge over
the west Atlantic will retreat eastward through Monday. The low
over the Yucatan is expected to move north today then northeast
across the east Gulf of Mexico, possibly as a tropical cyclone,
tonight and Monday. The low will move off the north Florida
coast Monday evening then north of the area Tuesday afternoon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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