[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Bonnie is centered near 35.0N 65.1W at
04/2100 UTC or about 160 nm N of Bermuda moving ESE at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 34N-37N between 69W-71W. See latest forecast/
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more
details.

Tropical wave extends from 14N88W to 20N86W moving W-NW at 15 kt.
The wave is associated with relatively sharp 700 mb troughing
extending from over the Yucatan peninsula E-NE to over the NW
Caribbean Sea. Global model 850 mb relative vorticity continues
to focus on a 1007 mb low centered along coastal Belize near
17N87W with scattered to numerous moderate convection from 14N-23N
between 78W-86W...and isolated moderate convection elsewhere from
11N-24N between 77W-90W. This low is expected to track across the
Yucatan peninsula this overnight into early Sunday...and emerge
into the south-central Gulf of Mexico waters Sunday night into
early Monday...reaching the NE Gulf by Monday afternoon. Likely
hazards from this potential area of low pressure will be increased
winds and building seas across the eastern Gulf waters...in
addition to the likelihood of heavy rainfall and possible flooding
across central and northern Florida early next week.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 05N13W to 10N11W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 10W and
14W with isolated moderate convection from 06N-11N between 09W-
15W.

Tropical wave extends from 05N51W to 12N48W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave is embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with broad 700
mb troughing between 45W-56W with scattered moderate convection
from 07N-13N between 43W-55W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
09N21W. The ITCZ extends from 09N21W to 04N40W to 06N50W to
05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between
35W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery over
southern Texas centered near 28N97W. This upper level feature
supports a broad area of lower pressure across SE Texas and the
western Gulf focused on a 1010 mb low centered near 27N96W. Given
the persistent middle to upper level lifting dynamics in place and
low-level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the low pressure
center...scattered to numerous showers and scattered tstms are
occurring N of 23N W of 90W...including inland portions of NE
Mexico...the lower Mississippi River valley and much of the SE
CONUS N of 30N. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under
the influence of gentle to moderate S-SE winds on the western
periphery of a weak ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high centered
across the SW North Atlc near 30N74W. The middle to upper level
low is expected to move SW over Mexico by Monday and begin to
elongate into a trough axis NE to SW from eastern Texas to west-
central Mexico near 21N106W through early Tuesday. As this
occurs...ridging currently over the NW Caribbean sea will move
N-NW to over western Cuba by Monday night and provide favorable
middle to upper level support for the special feature low pressure
area expected to track across the central and eastern portion of
the basin early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level ridge is anchored over the western Caribbean near
16N81W and influences a large area of the basin W of 75W with a
favorable upper level diffluent environment. This environment
along with the presence of a tropical wave along 87W and 1007 mb
low centered off the coast of Belize is generating scattered to
numerous showers and scattered tstms from 14N-23N between 77W-
89W...including Cuba and portions of Central America along with
their respective adjacent coastal waters. Most of this convection
is occurring within strong to near gale force SE winds generally N
of 13N W of 72W. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail E of
72W with generally fair skies this evening with the exception of
an isolated shower across Puerto Rico and in the vicinity of Saint
Lucia and Martinique.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the
island due to peak daytime heating and instability along with an
upper level diffluent pattern over the Greater Antilles. This
overall pattern is expected to persist overnight into Sunday with
increased probability of afternoon/evening scattered showers and
tstms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Much of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a relatively
dry mid-level ridge and W-NW flow aloft N of 25N W of 66W. S of
25N...an upper level diffluent environment due to ridging aloft
anchored over the NW Caribbean Sea influences the Bahamas and
Greater Antilles this evening. While the W-NW flow is promoting
fair weather in the vicinity of a 1019 mb high centered near
30N74W...to the south...isolated showers and tstms are occurring S
of 25N between 60W-80W...partially focused on a surface trough
extending from 20N72W to 25N67W. Farther east...an upper level
trough axis extends from 32N63W to 26N68W as a mid-level
shortwave moves eastward centered near 33N63W with isolated
showers and tstms occurring from 25N-32N between 58W-66W. The
upper level troughing will move E of 60W by early next week as an
upper level ridge anchored in the NW Caribbean Sea south of Cuba
will build over the waters W of 65W. Finally...the central and
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a broad subtropical high
pressure area anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 27N46W.
The only exception to the ridging is a weak cold front draped from
32N30W to 30N41W to 31N46W with isolated showers possible within
75 nm either side of the boundary.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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