[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 041434
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
1100 AM AST SAT JUN 04 2016

Bonnie appears to be weakening.  The small burst of deep convection
that occurred overnight has been shrinking, and the system is
now devoid of significant thunderstorm activity. Based on the
degraded structure of the system, the initial wind speed has been
lowered to 30 kt, making Bonnie a tropical depression once again.
The depression is over cold water and in a high wind shear
environment. Since these environmental conditions are not expected
to change, Bonnie is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low
by tonight. The remnant low will likely open into a trough within
the next couple of days.

The small cyclone is moving eastward at about 12 kt in the
mid-latitude westerlies. An eastward to east-southeastward motion
at a slightly faster forward speed is expected until Bonnie
dissipates. Little change was made to the previous track prediction,
and the official forecast lies close to a consensus of the GFS and
ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 35.6N  66.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 35.1N  64.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 34.6N  60.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0000Z 34.1N  57.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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