[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Bonnie is centered near 35.8N 73.3W at
03/0900 UTC or about 113 nm ENE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina
moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 34N-36N between 72W and 75W.
See latest forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/
WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis along
36W from 5N-13N moving W at 15 kt in the last 24 hours. The wave
coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 30W-40W and a
is embedded in the dry and dusty SAL environment, which hinder
convection at the time.

Tropical wave is inland Venezuela and Colombia along 69W from 1S to
10N moving W at 20 kt. The wave has been trackable the last
several days across the tropical Atlc and location is based on
persistent motion, low- level global model streamline analysis and
CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring within 90 nm either side
of the wave axis.

Tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis along 81W S of 20N
moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing and
850 mb relative vorticity. Abundant moisture in the region along
with a diffluent environment aloft support a cluster of heavy
showers and thunderstorms from 15N-20N between 76W and 82W.
Smaller clusters of similar convection are S of 13N between 73W
and 80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 7N11W
to 5N14W. The ITCZ extends from 5N14W to 4N30W to 5N40W to 4N51W.
Besides convection associated with the tropical wave above...scattered
moderate convection is from 2N-7N between 17W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level low centered over Texas continue to
support a broad area of low pressure across Texas focused on a
1009 mb low near 32N97W from which a stationary front extends SW
to over southern Texas. Ahead of the front, a squall line extends
from 28N93W to 23N95W and generates heavy showers and
thunderstorms N of 23N W of 93W. A surface trough is in the Bay of
Campeche from 23N91W to 18N93W. Scatterometer data show fresh to
strong SE winds in the vicinity of the squall line. The remainder
basin is under the influence of gentle to moderate E-SE winds. The
middle to upper level low is expected to drift east over eastern
Texas through tonight then move S-SW over northern Mexico
providing the NW Gulf with increased chances of precipitation
through the upcoming weekend. Global models indicate an area of
developing low pressure across the Gulf of Honduras to move across
the Yucatan peninsula Sunday and into the south-central Gulf
waters Sunday night into early Monday...reaching the NE Gulf by
early Tuesday. Likely hazards from this potential area of low
pressure will be increased winds and building seas across the
central and E Gulf waters...in addition to the likelihood of heavy
rainfall and possible flooding across central and northern Florida
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The main feature in the basin is a tropical wave
moving across the SW waters discussed in more details in the
tropical waves section. An upper trough over the SW N Atlantic
with base near the Windward passage and a broad ridge anchored N
of Colombia promote a diffluent and unstable environment across
the SW, central and portions of NW Caribbean. Given the favorable
lifting dynamics and the presence of the tropical wave, numerous heavy
showers and tstms are occurring from 15N-20N between 76W and 83W
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 15N
between 73W and 80W. Scattered to isolated showers are occurring
elsewhere E of 73W. Strong high pres NE of the Caribbean tightens
the gradient and support moderate to fresh trades over the
eastern basin and fresh to strong S of 18N E of the tropical wave
axis to 66W. The area of fresh to strong trades are expected to
expand and drift W-NW as the tropical wave continues its westward
path and a low pres forms over the weekend N of Honduras. Strong
to near gale force SE winds will accompany this low pressure area
on its eastern periphery and impact the NW Caribbean waters and
Yucatan Channel region.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently scattered showers are occurring across the island and
adjacent coastal waters due to the base of an upper level trough
over the Windward passage generating diffluence aloft and low-
level instability associated with a surface trough along 72W. The
troughing will lift north of the island tonight and a general
improving trend in conditions is expected as NW flow aloft will
persist Saturday and Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The SW North Atlc is under the influence of a middle to upper
level trough with axis along 72W. The base of the trough is over
the Windward passage with diffluence flow aloft noted east of the
trough axis to 62W. Scattered showers are occurring S of 30N
between 63W and 73W and in the Great Bahama Bank. Otherwise...the
remainder of the region is under the influence of a surface ridge
extending from a pair of 1023 mb highs, one centered near 29N56W
and other near 28N48W. The upper level troughing will move E of
60W by early next week as an upper level ridge anchored in the NW
Caribbean Sea south of Cuba will build over the waters W of 65W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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