[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the eastern Tropical Atlantic extends along 29W
from 2N-9N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb inverted trough as depicted on the GFS
model and is embedded within a low amplitude surge of moisture.
No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic along 56W/57W south
of 15N to inland over Suriname, South America moving west near
20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within an area of
deep moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is south of 9N to inland over South America between 55W-59W.

Tropical wave is along 69W/70W from the south Caribbean near 13N
to over Venezuela, South America moving west near 25 kt over the
past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within an area of deep moisture.
No associated deep convection.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 10N13W to 8N15W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to east of a tropical wave near 5N27W then resumes
west of the wave near 4N32W along 3N42W to South America near
3N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150/180 NM south
of the ITCZ between 23W-27W. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are moving off the west coast of
Africa between 7N-12N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge is anchored in the east Pacific region extends
into the west Gulf of Mexico near Veracruz to over the far
southeast CONUS near Tallahassee, Florida continuing over the
Appalachian Mountains while an upper trough extends along the
coast of North Carolina over the west east Gulf of Mexico and
west Atlantic along 80W continuing into the west Caribbean. A
weak surface ridge covers the Gulf with a 1017 mb high near
29N85W. A surface trough is in the south Gulf extending from
24N94W to the coast of Mexico near 19N92W. Scattered showers/
isolated thunderstorms are south of 21N west of 94W to inland
over Mexico. Afternoon showers/thunderstorms have been developed
inland over most of Florida, west Cuba, and the Yucatan
Peninsula. The activity inland and along the coast of Texas and
Louisiana is due to difflunce between the upper ridge over the
west Gulf and a large upper trough over the central CONUS and an
upper low over east Texas. These showers/thunderstorms could
move into the Gulf waters along the Texas/Louisiana coasts
tonight. Otherwise, skies are mostly clear across the Gulf basin
this evening. The surface high will persist though Friday night
then move east into the western Atlantic Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper trough over the east Gulf of Mexico and west Atlantic
extends over the west and central Caribbean west of 70W. An
upper ridge extends from South America over the northern Leeward
Islands covering remainder of the Caribbean. Upper diffluence
between the upper level features is generating scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms north of 17N between 67W-85W. The
monsoon trough extends across the southwest Caribbean from
Colombia near 11N74W along 12N79W then across Costa Rica into
the east Pacific region near 10N84W with scattered showers/
isolated thunderstorms south of 15N west of 73W to inland over
Central America. Light and variable winds will continue in the
southwest Caribbean through Thursday. Winds are expected to
increase between Colombia and Jamaica on tonight then expand
across the west Caribbean toward Cuba over the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are across the island
this evening. This activity is associated with the upper trough
and is being enhanced by the easterly trade winds. The upper
trough will give way to the upper ridge to the east covering the
island by Thursday night. Afternoon showers/thunderstorms are
expected to continue through the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper trough over the east Gulf of Mexico covers the west
Atlantic west of 70W with a narrow upper ridge to the east
extending along 63W from the northern Leeward Islands to beyond
32N. The diffluent area between these upper features is
generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms from 20N-29N
between 66W-73W and from Cuba to the Bahamas between 74W-79W. An
upper trough in the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold
front that enters the east Atlantic near 32N23W and extends
along 28N27W to 25N31W where it dissipates to 23N40W. The
remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge
anchored by a pair of 1025 mb highs near 31N48W and 30N55W. The
upper trough over the west Atlantic will persist through the end
of the week. A weak surface ridge will build from Bermuda to
northeast Florida tonight through Thursday then shift south of
Friday and extend along 29N starting Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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