[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 291738
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving westward at 20-25 mph.  The associated shower
activity is poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the
system any development should be slow to occur.  Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring showers and gusty winds
to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
the eastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend.  By the middle of next
week, the wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean Sea, where
conditions could be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure
system centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization.  However, recent
satellite wind data indicate that the low does not have a
well-defined circulation.  Some development is possible during the
next day or two before the disturbance encounters a less favorable
environment over the central tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
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