[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
136 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the east Tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 20N34W to 10N33W, moving west near 15 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb
trough as depicted in the global models and within a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
Despite this, no associated deep convection is observed at this
time as Saharan dust dominates the area.

A tropical wave is moving across western Caribbean with axis from
20N79W to 10N79W, moving west at 10-15 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave is within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is
observed to the west of the wave's axis enhanced by the presence
of an upper-level inverted trough.

A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula with axis
from 21N90W to 12N90W, moving west near 10 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted
in the global models. Scattered moderate convection is observed
with this wave affecting the western portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 21N17W and continues to 07N42W where the ITCZ
begins and continues to 04N53W. Isolated convection prevails
within 200 nm south of the Monsoon Trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A tropical wave is moving over the Yucatan Peninsula with
scattered convection. Please refer to the section above for
details. A diffluent flow aloft supports isolated convection
across the northeastern Gulf north of 25N and east of 88W.
At the surface, a ridge extends across the basin anchored by a
1017 mb high centered near 29N85W. Scatterometer data depicts
a light to gentle anticyclonic flow across the basin. Expect
during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving
west enhancing convection over the Bay of Campeche. Surface
ridging will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. An inverted upper-level
trough extends across Central America through the Gulf of Honduras
to over central Cuba near 22N80W which combined with the tropical
wave is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms between
80W-88W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by dry air and
Saharan dust which is inhibiting deep convection east of 80W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across most of
the basin except south of 16N between 72W-76W where fresh to
strong winds prevail. Expect during the next 24 hours for the
tropical wave to continue moving west with convection. Dry weather
will spread across the basin as Saharan dust dominates the area.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the western portion
of the island due to daytime heating and orographic lifting.
This activity will dissipate overnight. Fair weather will prevail
during the next 24 hours as Saharan dust and dry air dominates
the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving over the eastern Atlantic. Please refer
to the section above for details. An upper-level trough extends
across the western Atlantic. This feature combined with a
diffluent flow just to the east of the trough axis and a surface
trough from 31N74W to 28N77W are supporting scattered moderate
convection from 22N-28N between 70W-80W. A surface ridge prevails
across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1032 mb high
centered near 41N25W. Little change is expected within the next 24
hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ERA
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