[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
133 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the east Tropical Atlantic
with axis that extends from 22N27W to 12N28W, moving west near 10-15
kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a well defined
700 mb trough as depicted in the global models. Scattered
moderate convection is observed in the vicinity of the southern
portion of the wave but it is related to the presence of the
Monsoon Trough. The wave itself is surrounded by Saharan dry air
and dust which is inhibiting deep convection.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with axis
extending from 19N73W to 11N73W, moving west near 20-25 kt over
the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough
as depicted in the global models and within a surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms prevail along the northern portion of
the wave affecting western Hispaniola and adjacent waters between
71W-75W.

A tropical wave is located across the west Caribbean with axis
from 23N84W to 13N85W, moving west near 10-15 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted
in the global models and is within a surge of moisture as seen on
the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are observed north of 17N between 83W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 20N16W through a 1013 mb surface low near 11N22W to
07N46W. The ITCZ begins at 07N46W to 05N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm south of the Monsoon Trough between
18W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The northern portion of a tropical wave is approaching the Yucatan
Channel with isolated showers/thunderstorms. Please refer to the
section above for more details. A surface trough extends across
the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N89W to 19N91W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed with this boundary which is moving west
over the Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge prevails across the
remainder of the basin anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near
28N85W. A diffluent flow aloft prevails across the northeast Gulf
supporting scattered moderate convection north of 28N and east of
88W. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow across the basin. A similar weather pattern will prevail
during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. An inverted upper-level trough
extends along the coast of Nicaragua near 15N83W to central Cuba
near 21N78W. This feature supports isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the western Caribbean mainly west of 78W. To
the south, the presence of the Monsoon Trough supports scattered
moderate to strong convection over Colombia and Panama
affecting the southern waters south of 11N between 75W-80W. Dry
Saharan air prevails across the eastern Caribbean inhibiting
deep convection. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades across the basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for the
waves to continue moving west with isolated convection. Little
change is expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed across the western
portion of the island as a tropical wave moves west. Drier
conditions will prevail within the next 24 hours as a dry Saharan
airmass dominates the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic. Please
refer to the section above for details. An upper-level trough dips
south over the the far west Atlantic between 70W-80W supporting a
frontal system and surface low just north of the discussion area.
A surface trough precedes these features extending from 28N71W to
30N62W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms prevail along the
surface trough. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a
surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 38N35W. A
similar weather pattern will prevail through the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ERA
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