[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
139 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the east Tropical Atlantic
with axis that extends from 21N21W to 11N21W, moving west near 10-15
kt over the past 12 hours. The wave coincides with a well defined
700 mb inverted trough as depicted in the global models and
within a large surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is
observed across the southern portion of the wave mainly related
to the Monsoon Trough S of 12N.

A tropical wave is entering the E Caribbean with axis from 18N62W
to 11N61W, moving west near 15-20 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave
coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models and within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated convection is observed along
this wave affecting the Lesser Antilles and Eastern Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis from
23N80W to 13N81W, moving west near 20-25 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough as
depicted in the global models and moderate moisture prevails in
its environment. No associated deep convection is observed at this
time.

A tropical wave is moving across southern Mexico and the EPAC with
axis from 21N96W to 11N97W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave precedes a 700 mb trough as depicted in
the global models and is embedded within a broad area of moisture
as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are from 12N-17N between 96W-101W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 19N16W and continues to 06N39W where the ITCZ
begins and continues to South America near 03N51W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection prevails across western Africa and
south of the Monsoon Trough between 12W-22W while scattered
moderate convection is along the same boundary between 29W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The northern portion of a tropical wave is enhancing convection
across southern Mexico. Please see the section above for details.
A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1020 mb
high centered near 29N85W. With this, a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow prevails across the northern half of the Gulf.
An upper-level low centered over the Bay of Campeche is supporting
isolated convection across the area mainly west of 94W. A surface
trough has moved from the Yucatan Peninsula to the west extending
from 22N91W to 19N92W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the
surface ridge to persist across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. Isolated convection accompanies the
tropical wave currently entering the east Caribbean affecting the
Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and their adjacent waters north of
16N between 62W-67W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate trades across most of the Caribbean waters except between
70W-80W where moderate to fresh winds prevail due to a tight
pressure gradient. Expect in 24 hours for the waves to continue
moving west with enhancing convection. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. The passage
of a tropical wave will support scattered moderate convection
across the area within the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic. Please see
the section above for details. A surface trough extends across the
western Atlantic from 29N76W to 27N79W with isolated convection.
To the east, scattered moderate convection is approaching our area
mainly north of 29N between 60W-70W as a cold front moves
southeast. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface
ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 34N45W. Expect for
the surface trough over the west Atlantic to persist through
Friday. The surface ridge over the west Atlantic will shift east
ahead of the frontal boundary that will continue moving southeast
while weakening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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