[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 17N
southward, moving westward about 15 KNOTS. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 13N southward between 39W
and 48W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is moving through the islands of the
eastern sections of the area. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 13N to 14N between 57W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the Caribbean Sea from Jamaica southward between 71W and
85W. A separate area of upper level NE wind flow is moving across
Central America from Nicaragua southward. The monsoon trough is
along 07N74W in Colombia beyond western Costa Rica. Convective
precipitation: Numerous strong is in eastern Costa Rica. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds are to the southwest of the line that
runs from 11N75W at the Colombia coast to 17N81W, to the Gulf of
Honduras.

Scattered strong in Colombia from 06N to 08N
between 73W and 75W. Scattered to numerous strong from 10N to 14N
between coastal Colombia and coastal Nicaragua. Isolated moderate
elsewhere from 15N southward from 75W westward.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania
near 20N16W, to 15N20W, to 09N30W, and 08N38W. The ITCZ is along
06N40W 03N50W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered to
scattered moderate to strong from 07N to 11N between 13W and 20W,
and within 30 NM on either side of 10N21W 09N24W 08N26W. Isolated
moderate from 03N to 08N between 22W and 33W, and elsewhere from
13N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
25N northward from 90W westward. A smaller and more localized area
of anticyclonic wind flow also was in the southwestern corner of
the Gulf of Mexico near 20N96W.

Upper level NE wind flow covers much of the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico. This NE wind flow is part of a larger area of overall cyclonic
wind flow that also covers parts of the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from
20N to 28N.

A surface ridge passes through Louisiana to the west central
sections of the Gulf of Mexico, to 18N97W in Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR...NONE.

IFR...NONE.

MVFR...KGHB and KVQT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the northwestern corner of
the area. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N
northward from Hispaniola westward.

Middle level to upper level SE wind flow covers the area that is
from 70W eastward. This wind flow is part of the larger-scale
inverted trough that is moving through the area.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.19 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level to upper level SE wind flow is moving across
Hispaniola. Broad cyclonic wind flow from an upper level inverted
trough spans the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
northward between 57W and 80W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI as of 19/0000
UTC: light rain. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...for Barahona as of
19/0000 UTC: few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santo
Domingo: scattered low level clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS. La
Romana: few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS. Punta Cana:
scattered low level clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santiago: few low
level clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS. Puerto Plata: few cumulonimbus
clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NE to
E wind flow will move across the area during day one. Day two
consists of an inverted trough that is to the south of Hispaniola
at the start of day two, moving northwestward. SE wind flow will
cover the area for most of day two. Day two will end with
anticyclonic wind flow spreading across the area. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB and for 700 MB shows that broad SE wind flow
will move across the area during the next 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad cyclonic wind flow from an upper level inverted trough
spans the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward
between 57W and 80W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate
in the area of cyclonic wind flow.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is about 600 NM to
the west of Morocco. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward between Africa and 80W. A 1031 MB high pressure
center is near 35N46W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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