[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181107
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
707 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W from 17N southward,
moving westward about 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong from 03N to 10N
between 30W and 40W, possibly including some ITCZ-related
precipitation also.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W from 20N
southward, moving westward about 15 KNOTS. Convective
precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
11N to 12N between 54W and 55W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 13N southward between 50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. The monsoon trough is
along 10N from 74W in Colombia, beyond northwestern Costa Rica.
Convective precipitation: Scattered strong in Colombia from 06N
to 08N between 73W and 75W. Scattered to numerous strong from 10N
to 14N between coastal Colombia and coastal Nicaragua. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 15N southward from 75W westward.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 11N20W, to 08N30W, and 06N40W. The ITCZ is along
06N40W 05N52W in French Guiana. Convective precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 08N
between 11W and 20W. Isolated moderate from 03N to 08N between
20W and 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Some cyclonic wind flow remains in the coastal waters of Mexico.
An upper level cyclonic circulation center is inland in Mexico.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the area that is to
the east and southeast of the line that runs from the Florida Big
Bend to the northwestern corner of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to the northwest of
the line that runs from the middle Texas Gulf Coast to the Yucatan
Peninsula. Numerous strong within a 30 NM radius of 19N95W, near a
diurnal surface trough that is in the southwestern corner of the
Gulf of Mexico.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the rest of the
Gulf of Mexico.  that is between Florida and Texas. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow also covers the easternmost part of the
southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong from 18N to 19N between 91W and
92W, in comparatively broad surface low pressure/with a transient
and diurnal surface trough.

A surface ridge passes through: the Florida Big Bend, to 27N92W in the
Gulf of Mexico, to 17N97W in Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR...NONE.

IFR...NONE.

MVFR...KBBF and KMDJ.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Alice. LOUISIANA: IFR in Patterson. MVFR in
Galliano. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in the Hattiesburg metropolitan area.
MVFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: MVFR in Evergreen. FLORIDA: MVFR at
the Tampa Executive Airport. Key West: Rain and thunder.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the northwestern corner of
the area. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 18N
northward from the Windward Passage westward.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the southwestern
corner of the Caribbean Sea. This wind flow is in the area of the
monsoon trough and the 82W/83W tropical wave. Scattered to
numerous strong convective precipitation is in the southwestern
corner of the Caribbean Sea.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.02 in
Bermuda.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level northerly wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. An
upper level inverted trough is on top of the islands of the
eastern Caribbean Sea.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI as of 17/2300
UTC: scattered cumulonimbus clouds/VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...for Barahona as of 18/0000 UTC: broken low level
clouds/MVFR. Santo Domingo and La Romana: VFR/NO CEILINGS. Punta
Cana: Few cumulonimbus, VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santiago: scattered low
level clouds/VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR/NO CEILINGS.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that N
wind flow will transition into part cyclonic wind flow with an
inverted trough/part E to SE wind flow to the north of the inverted
trough, for day one. Day two will start with E to SE wind flow,
and then it will become cyclonic again with the same inverted
trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE to E wind
flow will transition into SE wind flow by the end of day one. SE
wind flow will cover the area for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 MB shows that day one will consist of NE wind flow for the
first half of day one, followed by an inverted trough for the rest
of day one. with NE wind flow at the end of day one. Day two will
start with SE wind flow.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level inverted trough cuts across the Bahamas. Broad
upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 70W westward. Convective precipitation: Isolated
moderate from 20N northward from 70W westward.

A middle level to upper level inverted trough cuts across the
islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 19N to 22N
between 60W and 64W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 20N to 30N
between 60W and 70W.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is about 650 NM to
the west of Morocco. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible in bands of multilayered clouds, to the north of the line
that passes through 32N21W 28N26W 26N40W, and 25N50W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward between Africa and 80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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