[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152322
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic has an axis
that extends from 17N32W to 04N33W, moving westward at 15-20 kt.
This wave is embedded in a broad 700 mb trough as indicated in
model fields, and is accompanied by a modest surge in moisture.
Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 32W-40W.
This convection may also be associated with the ITCZ.

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean has an axis that
extends from 15N64W to 05N64W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. This
wave is embedded in subtle 700 mb troughing and is in a surge of
deep moisture that covers the far southern Caribbean Sea.
Scattered moderate convection is over a large area from 03N-12N
between 56W-69W to include northern Venezuela.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N16W and continues to 10N32W. The ITCZ begins
west of a tropical wave near 09N36W and continues to 09N50W to
South America near 08N60W. Isolated moderate convection is from
07N-12N between 13W-20W, and from 06N-09N between 40W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic across
Florida, to the northeastern Texas Coast. Gentle breeze winds
cover the Gulf. An upper low is centered over the SW Gulf near
22N94W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over most
of the Gulf E of 95W to include the NE Gulf States, Florida, W
Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Little change is forecast for
the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. See above. The
surface pressure gradient between Atlantic ridging and lower
pressures over Colombia supports fresh breeze to strong breeze
tradewinds over the south central Caribbean. An upper low is
currently just south of western Cuba near 21N82W. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection are over the N Caribbean north of
17N west of 70W to include Cuba and the NW Caribbean. An upper
level high is centered over the NE Caribbean near 18N64W with
strong subsidence. Elsewhere clusters of scattered moderate
convection are over the SW Caribbean, and Central America from
Costa Rica to Belize. Expect over the next 24 hours for the
tropical wave to move west with convection. Also expect the
upper level low to move west to the SE Gulf of Mexico.

...HISPANIOLA...

Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over Hispaniola.
Expect a gradual decrease in convection over the next 24 hours
as the upper low moves west from the region and the tropical
wave slips south of the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic. Please
refer to the tropical waves section for more details. A 1020 mb
high is over the western Atlantic near 30N74W. Another 1023 mb
high is over the central Atlantic near 29N56W. A cold front has
dipped over the central Atlantic from 31N38W to 28N44W to
31N52W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front.
Another 1021 mb high is over the eastern Atlantic near 32N29W.
Expect the cold front to move slowly to the east over the next
24 hours with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
FORMOSA
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