[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 28W
from 8N-19N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough/low as depicted in
the global models and within a surge of moderate moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated
deep convection.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 55W
south of 15N to the coast of South America moving west 10 to 15
kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough
as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a surge
of deep moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Wave is enhancing the activity associated with the
ITCZ.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 20N16W and continues across the Cape Verde Islands
along 9N31W to 8N38W where the ITCZ begins and continues along
8N45W to east of the tropical wave near 5N53W then resumes west
of the wave near 7N55W to South America near 6N68W. Clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 6N-8N
between 29W-40W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are
from 6N-11N between 46W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper trough extends from the upper low in the northwest
Caribbean through the Yucatan Channel to the coast of Mexico
near 25N97W. An upper ridge is over the southeast CONUS near the
Florida/Georgia/Alabama border. This is producing a diffluent
environment to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms north of 25N east of 93W. The diurnal surface
trough has developed inland over the Yucatan and at 15/0300 UTC
extends from 21N91W to over south Mexico near 18N92W generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 21N east
of 93W. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across
central Florida to northeast Texas. The surface ridge will
persist through the weekend. The diurnal surface trough will
form each evening over the Yucatan and dissipate over the
southwest Gulf late each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper low is centered near 20N80W and extends a trough
axis west through the Yucatan Channel to over the Gulf of
Mexico. This upper low covers the Caribbean west of 71W while an
upper ridge anchored near 14N64W covers the remainder of the
Caribbean tonight. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are inland and along the immediate coast of
Hispaniola west of 70W and within 90 nm along the south and west
coasts of Cuba. An upper ridge anchored in the east Pacific
region extends across south Mexico to over the Gulf of Honduras
and is enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
south of 20N west of 86W to inland over the Yucatan. The monsoon
trough extends from Colombia across Panama in the east Pacific
region generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
south of 11N between 77W-83W. The tight pressure gradient
between the west Atlantic surface ridge and the lower pressure
over South America is producing fresh to strong trade winds
across the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. Winds
will be strongest along the coast of Colombia during the
overnight hours. A tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean
Friday and into the central Caribbean Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are inland
and along the immediate coasts of the island west of 70W. The
upper ridge over the east Caribbean will shift west and dominate
the Caribbean basin by Saturday night. Afternoon or evening
showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday. The tropical
wave entering the Caribbean Friday could bring more showers and
thunderstorms to the island later in the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper low in the northwest Caribbean is generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Bahamas to the
Greater Antilles between 71W-80W. An upper trough north of the
discussion area is supporting a cold front that dips south into
the central Atlantic through 32N39W to 30N45W then northwest
beyond 32N51W. Isolated showers are possible along the frontal
boundary. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the remainder of
the Atlantic tonight. A surface ridge extends through 32N27W
south of the above front to a 1023 mb high near 29N53W, then
westward to a weak 1020 mb high near 29N73W, continuing west
across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. This surface
ridge will gradually move north of the area late in the weekend.
Fresh to locally strong winds will develop Friday along the
north coast of Hispaniola and the northern approach to the
Windward Passage, then continue during the late afternoon and
evening hours through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net