[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 15N32W to 07N34W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave is embedded in a dry environment from surface to
850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. Meteosat imagery show
Saharan dust within the wave that along with strong deep-layer
wind shear limits the convection to isolated showers S of 09N
between 30W-36W.

A tropical wave just entered the eastern Caribbean with axis
extending from 18N62W to 10N64W, moving W at 20 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from
surface to 850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. This moisture
combined with a diffluent environment aloft supports scattered
moderate convection from 12N-16N between 62W-67W.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis from 20N74W
to 12N76W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW
imagery show the wave embedded in shallow moisture whereas water
vapor imagery show strong subsidence aloft. No significant
convection is noticed with this wave at this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 11N16W to 10N30W. The ITCZ begins
W of a tropical wave near 08N35W to 06N57W. Aside from convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers are within
120 nm S of both boundaries between 16W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb surface high is centered across the NE Gulf near
27N87W, which provides light variable winds E of 90W. Gentle to
moderate return flow dominates elsewhere. An upper-level low
prevails across the eastern portion of the basin supporting
isolated showers mainly E of 90W. Little change is expected within
the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. The pressure gradient between
ridging across the Atlantic extending across the northern
Caribbean and lower pressures across northern Venezuela and
Colombia continue to support fresh to strong trades across the
central and SW Caribbean. Generally moderate to fresh trades
prevail elsewhere. A mid-level trough centered over Cuba and
shallow moisture in the NW Caribbean support scattered showers
and thunderstorms over southern Cuba and its adjacent waters. The
proximity of the Monsoon Trough and a diffluent flow aloft
support scattered moderate convection S of 10N between 75W-82W.
The tropical waves will continue moving W with convection. Little
change is expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Passing showers are across the island and adjacent waters
associated with a tropical wave moving over central Caribbean
waters. This activity will continue through the day. Drier weather
is expected during the next 24 hours as the wave move W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the basin. PLease refer to the
section above for details. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge
dominates the Atlantic waters anchored by a 1026 mb high near
27N51W. This weather pattern will continue during the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net