[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 16N27W to 05N32W, moving W at 15 kt within the
last 24 hours. Meteosat imagery shows Saharan dust and dry air
prevailing along most of the wave's area. Strong deep-layer wind
shear is also limiting convection. Isolated moderate convection
is from 05N-09N between 28w-33w.

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles with axis
extending from 17N56W to 07N56W, moving W at 20 kt within the
last 24 hours. The wave is embedded in a light to moderate moist
environment from surface to 850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW
imagery. This wave shows an outflow boundary approaching
Barbados. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-14N between
56W-60W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis from
20N69W to 11N73W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 24 hours.
Shallow moisture prevails behind this wave. Radar imagery shows
scattered convection across Puerto Rico and the Eastern portion
of the basin mainly E of 68W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 14N17W to 07N30W to 07N39W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N39W to 08N55W. Aside from convection
associated with the tropical waves, isolated moderate convection
is from 06N-11N between 10W-27W, and from 06N-09N between 38W-
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1019 mb
high centered near 27N88W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
as noted on scatterometer imagery going around the high. In the
upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the eastern
Gulf near 26N86W. Scattered moderate convection is mostly inland
over the north Gulf States from Louisiana to Florida N of 30N.
Isolated moderate convection is inland over the Florida
Peninsula, W Cuba, N Yucatan Peninsula, and S Mexico between 90W-
96W. Little change is expected during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles, and another
wave is over the central Caribbean. Please refer to the above
section for more details. 10-25 knot tradewinds are over the
Caribbean with strongest winds over the central Caribbean S of
Jamaica. Scattered moderate convection is over S Nicaragua from
11N-13N between 82W-86W. Scattered showers are over E Honduras,
and E Cuba. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over
the western Caribbean W of 80W with upper level moisture.
Another upper level ridge is over the eastern Caribbean with
strong subsidence. An upper level kol separates the two
features. Expect the tropical waves to be the dominate features
over the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are now over eastern Hispaniola due to a
tropical wave. Expect showers to spread over the entire
island for the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main features across the basin are two tropical waves, which
are discussed in the waves section above. Elsewhere, a broad
surface ridge dominates the Atlantic waters anchored by a 1027
mb high centered near 34N27W. Little change is expected within
the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Formosa
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