[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
615 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the tropical east Atlantic with axis near
24W, moving west at 10 knots. The wave is embedded in a mainly
low moist environment from surface to 850 mb as indicated by CIRA
LPW imagery. Meteosat imagery show Saharan dry air and dust in the
wave environment that along with strong deep layer wind shear in
the region limit the convection to scattered showers from 05N-08N
between 20W and 27W.

A tropical wave is in the west Atlantic with axis near 51W,
moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is
embedded in a low to moderate moist environment from surface to
850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. A diffluent environment
aloft support scattered showers from 07N-13N between 46W and 54W.

A tropical wave is entering the central Caribbean. Its axis is near
68W and has been moving west at 10 knots within the last 24
hours. A mainly low moist environment from the surface to 850 mb
is associated with the wave. Water vapor imagery show strong
subsidence in the vicinity of this wave as well. Passing showers
are possible for NE Caribbean waters, including Puerto Rico and
adjacent waters.

A tropical wave is in Central America with axis near 89W, moving
west at 10 knots. Shallow moisture and diffluent flow aloft
support scattered showers in the western Gulf of Honduras.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 10N14W to 06N26W to 07N35W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N36W to
04N51W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical
waves...scattered showers and tstms are from 05N-08N between 30W
and 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Relatively tranquil conditions continue across the basin as a
1019 mb high is centered across the NE Gulf near 26N85W, which
provides light variable wind flow mainly E of 89W. Gentle to
moderate return flow dominates elsewhere, except in the eastern
Bay of Campeche where a heat induced surface trough may support
fresh NE flow. Otherwise...primarily gentle to moderate S-SE winds
are expected through the upcoming weekend with very little change.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between ridging across the SW North Atlc
and lower pressure across northern Colombia continue to support fresh
to strong trades across the majority of the central and SW
Caribbean. The exception is along the Coast of Colombia where
near gale force winds are advertised. Generally moderate to fresh
trades prevail elsewhere. Moderate moisture in the SW basin and a
diffluent wind pattern at the upper levels supports a cluster of
heavy showers and tstms over Nicaragua that extends 90 nm off the
coast. Similar convection is within 60 nm off the coasts of Costa
Rica and northern Panama. A short-wave upper level trough over
central Cuba with base reaching S to Jamaica supports isolated showers
and tstms over southern Cuba adjacent waters. Isolated showers
are observed across SW Hispaniola and Windward Passage.
Otherwise, passing showers are expected through the NE Caribbean
associated with a weak tropical wave. See waves section above for
details. The tropical wave will move to the central basin today possibly
generating showers for Hispaniola. A second tropical wave will
enter the E Caribbean Sunday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are across SW Hispaniola and Windward Passage.
Weather conditions will gradually improve today as a dry air mass
moves across the Island. However, during the night hours
conditions start to deteriorate again as a tropical wave moves to central
Caribbean waters. Showers associated to this wave are expected
during most day Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main features across the basin are two tropical waves
discussed in the waves section above. Otherwise, a broad surface
ridge dominates the remaining Atlantic waters being anchored by a
1027 mb center of high pres SW of the Azores near 32N29W. Mostly
tranquil conditions are expected to persist with the broad surface
ridging the next few days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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