[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
139 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave exited the African Coast over the past 24 hours
with an axis currently extending from near 15N18W to 06N20W. This
wave coincides with a surge of deep moisture and 700 mb troughing
in model fields. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N to 14N
between 16W and 22W.

A tropical wave is in the east tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from near 13N43W to 03N44W, moving west at around 20
knots over the last 24 hours. The wave is embedded in a broad
moderately moist environment with 700 mb troughing evident in
model fields between 40W and 48W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 07N to 12N between 42W and 54W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis extending
from 17N64W to 07N66W, moving west at 20 to 25 knots over the
last 24 hours. The wave is embedded in an environment of low to
moderate moisture, with Saharan dust evident in Meteosat imagery
as well as surface observations across the Windward Islands. The
wave is also embedded in an elongated 700 mb trough between 60W
and 68W. No deep convection is currently associated with this
wave.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis extending
from near 12N81W to 03N82W, moving west at 15 to 20 knots over the
last 24 hours. This wave is embedded in an environment of high
moisture, and can be tracked for the past couple of days over
Venezuela and Colombia in infrared satellite imagery. Clusters of
moderate to strong convection are south of 14N and west of 78W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical
Atlantic near 12N16W to 06N27W. The ITCZ extends from 06N27W to
05N42W, continuing west of a tropical wave near 06N46W to 08N57W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves,
isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of either side of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Climatologically persistent surface ridging across the central
Atlantic continues to extend westward over the Florida Peninsula
through a 1019 mb surface high center near 28N83W and across the
northern Gulf coast near Houston, Texas. Mainly gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds cover the Gulf basin, except for within 180 nm
nw of the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A diffluent
environment aloft supports isolated thunderstorms east of 91W.
Very little change in the synoptic pattern is forecast over the
next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent tight pressure gradient between Atlantic ridging and
lower pressures over Colombia continues to support fresh to
locally strong trades over the majority of the central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Aside from convection
associated with the southwestern Caribbean tropical wave, the
Caribbean is mainly void of convection. Please refer to the
tropical waves section for more details on this convection. Over
the next 24 hours the southwestern Caribbean wave will exit the
basin. The eastern Caribbean wave will enter the central Caribbean
on Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Surface observations and Meteosat imagery indicate Saharan dust
continues over Hispaniola today. This combined with an environment
of low to moderate moisture is inhibiting shower and thunderstorm
activity. This pattern will persist through much of the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad ridge axis extends from a 1026 mb high centered near
34N26W across the central and western Atlantic south of 31N and
north of 15N. A weakness in the ridge in the form of a surface
trough extends from 32N50W to 28N55W. Isolated moderate convection
is within 120 nm east of the trough axis. Elsewhere, two tropical
waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the tropical
waves section for more details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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