[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W, from 14N-04N,
moving westward at 15 knots. Broad inverted troughing at 700 mb
is noted along 30W. Satellite precipitable water imagery
indicates this wave is embedded in deep layer moisture.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W, from 16N-05N,
moving westward at 20 knots. Broad inverted troughing at 700 mb
is noted along 50W. Abundant Saharan dust and dry air continues
to surround this wave. Isolated moderate convection is from 10N-
12N between 43W-48W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, from 20N-09N,
moving westward at 15 knots. Broad inverted troughing at 700 mb
is noted in model guidance in conjunction with this wave.
Satellite precipitable water imagery indicates this wave is
embedded in deep layer moisture. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection is west of the wave axis over Jamaica and E Cuba,
from 17N-21N between 75W-79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 08N26W. The ITCZ extends from 08N30W to
08N38W to 10N43W. The ITCZ continues west of a tropical wave
near 10N46W to the coast of South America near 06N58W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 36W-44W, and
from 08N-10N between 51W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A small 1020 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near
28N85W. 05-10 knot anticyclonic winds are noted around the high.
10-15 knot SE flow is over the remainder of the Gulf. Scattered
moderate convection is over western tip of Cuba. Isolated
moderate convection is over S Mississippi, S Alabama, S Georgia,
and Florida. In the upper levels, a small upper level high is
centered over the W Cuba near 22N85W. Expect over the next 24
hours for the convection over the northern Gulf States to move
NE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please
see above for more details. Scattered moderate convection is
inland over N Venezuela, and N Colombia. Isolated moderate
convection is over the SW Caribbean, Panama, Costa Rica,
Nicaragua, E Honduras, and Guatemala. In the upper levels, a
small upper level low is centered north of Hispaniola over the
Atlantic near 23N68W enhancing convection. Expect the tropical
wave to be the dominate features over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the island
due to the tropical wave and upper level diffluence. Expect over
the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west of the
island, while the upper level low moves northwest to the
Bahamas. The net result in 24 hours will be a decrease in
precipitation.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Tropical Atlantic.
Please refer to the section above for details. A 1024 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 28N58W producing fair
weather. Another large 1026 mb high is centered over the eastern
Atlantic near 32N32W. Expect over the next 24 hours for
additional showers over the central Bahamas due to the upper
level low.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Formosa
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