[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041801
TWDAT

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale force winds were along the coast of Colombia at 1200 UTC,
however, at 1500 UTC the surface pressure gradient lessened thus
near gale winds prevail. Please see the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W, from 17N-05N,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers are within
120 nm of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W, from 18N-05N,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is
from 14N-19N between 55W-58W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W from 20N-11N
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers are within 120
nm of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical
Atlantic near 12N17W to 10N30W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical
wave near 09N33W to 05N43W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the coast of west Africa
from 05N-14N between 10W-19W. Isolated moderate convection is
along the ITCZ from 03N-08N between 45W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin along 29N. 10-15 knot
SE flow dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate
convection is over the SE Gulf and south Florida south of 27N
and east of 83W. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is
centered over west Cuba near 22N83W enhancing the convection
over the SE Gulf. Expect over the next 24-48 hours for a
tropical wave to move to the Bay of Campeche with convection.
Also expect the convection over the SE Gulf to persist over the
next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Another
tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Please see
above for more details. In addition, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean, Panama, and
Nicaragua from south of 12N between 80W-85W. In the upper
levels, a small upper level low is centered over the Atlantic
near 22N60W enhancing convection east of the Lesser Antilles.
Expect the tropical waves to be the dominate features over the
next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly fair weather is over the island. Daytime heating coupled
with southerly flow aloft will give the island afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms today and Tuesday before a tropical
wave moves across the island by the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Tropical Atlantic.
Please refer to the section above for details. Isolated moderate
convection is north of Cuba from 23N-27N between 77W-80W. A
large 1029 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near
30N42W producing fair weather.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Formosa
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