[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale force winds will be discontinued along the coast of Colombia
at 01/1500 UTC. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the far east Tropical Atlantic extends along
25W-26W from 7N-17N moving west near 20 kt over the past 12
hours. Wave coincides with a weak, low amplitude 700 mb trough
as seen on the global models and is embedded within a high
amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave moving into the central Tropical Atlantic extends
along 35W-36W from 3N-12N moving west near 20 kt over the past
24 hours. Wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough as seen on
the global models and is embedded within a low amplitude surge
of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are from 2N-8N between 32W-40W.

Tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands extends along 59W-
60W south of 13N to inland over South America moving west near
20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak, low
amplitude 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is
embedded within a high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on
the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are from 12N-19N between
55W-62W.

Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 67W south of
17N to inland over South America moving west near 20 kt over the
past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough as seen
on the global models and is along a surge of moisture that is
from 13N-19N as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Activity near the north portion of the wave is
associated with the wave and an upper trough just to the west.
See Caribbean Sea section below.

Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 81W south of
15N to across Panama into the east Pacific region moving west
near 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a
low amplitude 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is
embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Convection over the southwest
Caribbean is associated with the wave and the monsoon trough.
See Caribbean Sea section below.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N16W along 10N21W 8N31W to 4N41W where the ITCZ
begins and continues along 4N46W to South America near 3N51W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 6N-(n
between 14W-18W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are from 3N-10N between 40W-48W and within 90
nm north of the ITCZ between 48W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper trough covers the east CONUS to the north Gulf
coast supporting a frontal boundary that remains inland over the
southeast CONUS. A surface trough extends from 30N88W over the
Mississippi Delta of Louisiana to a weak 1014 mb low near 28N93W
then to the coast of Texas near 29N96W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are north of 26N east of 88W to inland
over Florida, from 27N-29N between 88W-93W, and within 45 nm of
the surface trough west of 93W. An upper ridge anchored in the
east Pacific region covers south Mexico and the Bay of Campeche
south of 23N. This westerly flow aloft combined with the
easterly surface flow is generating isolated showers south of
21N between 91W-96W. A surface ridge extends from the west
Atlantic across south-central Florida to the coast of Mexico
near Tampico. This is giving the remainder of the Gulf mostly
clear skies this afternoon. The 1014 mb low is expected to
dissipate this afternoon. Surface ridge will persist through the
weekend while the surface trough will linger across the north
Gulf. A diurnal surface trough over the Yucatan will return
during evening hours, then dissipate during the early morning
hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper low over the Turks and Caicos extends an upper trough
into the Caribbean from Puerto Rico/Mona Passage to central Cuba
to near 12N77W generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 18N to the coast of Cuba between 76W-82W.
This upper trough combined with the tropical wave is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 14N-19N
between 62W-72W including Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N75W
to across Costa Rica near 9N83W. The monsoon trough coupled with
the tropical wave along 81W are generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms south of 12N west of 79W to inland over
Panama to south Nicaragua. This is leaving the remainder of the
Caribbean with mostly clear skies this afternoon. The west
Caribbean tropical wave will move inland over Central America
tonight. The east Caribbean tropical wave will continue across
the basin through the weekend. The high pressure over the
southwest Atlantic combined with the lower pressure over
Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds across the
majority of the central Caribbean through the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

The upper low over the Turks and Caicos combined with the
tropical wave are generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Dominican Republic this afternoon. The
upper low over the Turks and Caicos will shift west Saturday
giving the island southerly flow aloft. This will produce fresh
to locally strong winds along the north coast of Hispaniola each
evening/night through the weekend. As the upper trough shifts
west, the west Caribbean tropical wave will also shift west
bringing additional moisture to the entire island. This is give
Hispaniola scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for the
most of the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A line of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are off
the coast of Florida within 45/60 nm of a line from 23N79W along
27N79W to 31N78W. This activity is a convergence line between
northerly flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface around
the periphery of the Atlantic surface ridge. An upper trough over
the east CONUS extends into the northwest Atlantic north of 32N
supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of
31N between 74W-80W. A strong upper low is centered over the
Turks and Caicos and is generating scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms south of 20N between 63W-71W. A
shortwave upper trough is over the east-central Atlantic
supporting a surface trough that extends from 31N49W to 26N51W
generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
from 28N-30N between 46W-49W. The remainder of the Atlantic is
dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1036 mb high west-
northwest of the Azores and a ridge axis extending through
32N56W along 28N72W across south-central Florida to over the
Gulf of Mexico. The surface ridge will persist through weekend.
Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse between the Turks and
Caicos and the coast of Hispaniola each evening and night
through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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