[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 31N78W SW TO
A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE FAR EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N82W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE LATEST SCAT PASS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE S OF 21N WHERE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SEAS OF 12 T0 16 FT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS IN THE ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST OVER SW N ATLC WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...N OF 27N
WITHIN 120 NM SE OF FRONT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE BY SAT AFTERNOON.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N13W TO 03N36W TO 01N48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
AND FROM 02N TO 04S W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 31N78W SW TO
A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE FAR EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR27N82W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER THE WESTERN GULF...RIDGING CONTINUES
TO BUILD AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...THUS SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE WINDS. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN
CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. WARM MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER THE
SE BASIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN
120 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT...INCLUDING THE SW GULF. FRESH TO
STRONG W TO NW WINDS DOMINATE BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT THE GALE-
FORCE AREA DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE BASIN EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN RELAXES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES
ISLANDS EXTENDS SW OVER ATLC WATERS TO THE NE CARIBBEAN AND
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO NORTHERN HONDURAS AND ENHANCES
SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 83W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY INCREASING THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY IN THE REGION.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NW OF THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND...EXCEPT FOR HAZY
CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA
AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER
NW CARIBBEAN WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 31N78W SW TO
29N81W TO A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE FAR EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 27N82W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
IN THE ATLC TO THE SE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MIAMI...ACROSS THE
STRAITS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SUPPORT THE FRONT
GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT ENHANCES NUMEROUS
SHOWERS N OF 27N W OF 70W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING FL AND THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N
FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. HEAVY SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS SW N ATLC WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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