[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AND RACE E REACHING A POSITION FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. STRONG
N WINDS WILL DEVELOP W OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD S ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SW
GULF WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 25-30 KT NEAR
GALE FORCE MOST AREAS WITH AN EMBEDDED BAND OF MINIMAL GALE
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT. THESE
MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SE REACHING ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF 21N W OF 94W ON WED AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE ON THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15 FT NEAR
22N96W. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WED EVENING. A WEAK...PERHAPS ABOUT
1011 MB...LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR
26N85W ON WED NIGHT AND RACE NE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THU
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE THU
AFTERNOON. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC
HIGH PRESSURE AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL
SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA...ROUGHLY FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W INTO THE
EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING. MINIMAL GALE 25-35 KT
CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 FT THIS MORNING AND
TO 13 FT TONIGHT. THESE MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE SURROUNDED
BY STRONG NE-E TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W AND 78W
WHICH ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND E AND W TODAY AND COVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W TONIGHT.  PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N FROM 10E TO 01W... THEN
TURNS NW JUST INLAND ACROSS SW AFRICA TO 08N13W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES SW TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W...THEN TURNS W ALONG THE
EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 50W. LOCALLY BROKEN
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N05W TO 05N22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER WINDS ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE E
ACROSS THE GULF WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE EVIDENT E OF 86W. AT THE
LOW LEVELS AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IS
RETRACTING E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY SLIPPED
OFF THE NW COAST FROM SW LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS. AN AREA OF RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF THE NE TEXAS COAST THIS
MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
OF THE CARIBBEAN ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR...EXCEPT FOR DENSE
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS CURRENTLY STREAMING E ACROSS THE YUCATAN BASIN.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO NOTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PATCHES
OF LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT AND BRIEF
SHOWERS...RACING W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W THEN TURNING
NW...IN RESPONSE TO THE ATLANTIC RIDGE...ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AS
MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE SOUTHERN END OF A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. EXPECT BRIEF AND LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TONIGHT AS REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH DRIFT N OF
THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 65W. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 23N43W WITH ITS UPPER
ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE DOMINATING THE AREA BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.
AT THE LOW LEVELS A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF
THE AREA AT 34N65W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NE FLORIDA. A
WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA AT 32N48W
TO NEAR 22N60W WHERE IS BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY TO HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...DETECTED BY LIGHTNING
DATA...ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 25N60W TO
22N64W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED
NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE SUBTROPICAL ATLC...WITH SOME OF THE
MOISTURE SPILLING S ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE AND BACK ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 20N BETWEEN 22W AND 42W. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE E AND WEAKEN TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

NELSON
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