[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 989 MB STORM LOW CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
45N46W SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW
TO 30N58W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W THEN STALLS FROM
SOUTHERN HAITI TO NORTHERN PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N WITHIN 210 NM E OF FRONT WITH
ASSOCIATED SEAS FROM 10 TO 17 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

A BROAD RIDGE CURRENTLY ANCHORED IN THE SE CONUS WILL MOVE E
INTO ATLC WATERS TODAY WHILE IT INTENSIFIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER N COLOMBIA WILL
INCREASE...THUS YIELDING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W TUE MORNING. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD FROM 9 TO 12 FT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
11N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S44W. NO CONVECTION IS PRESENT
AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB CENTER OVER NE WATERS NEAR 28N85W. LATEST SCAT DATA SHOW
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS E OF 90W WHILE THE PASS OVER
THE WESTERN BASIN DEPICTS MAINLY SE TO S MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS...WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER VERACRUZ COASTAL WATERS.
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF A FORMER COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE SW N ATLC
WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN BASIN WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF
WATERS TUE MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS IN THAT REGION. THEN...ON TUE MORNING FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NW OF TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STORM LOW CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FROM 19N70W SW TO SOUTHERN HAITI WHERE IT STALLS TO
PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. LIFTING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. COMBINED SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. LATEST SCAT DATA SHOW
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WILL STALL OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO SW TO
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS WHERE IT WILL START
DISSIPATING. A BROAD RIDGE CURRENTLY ANCHORED IN THE SE CONUS
WILL MOVE E INTO ATLC WATERS TODAY WHILE IT INTENSIFIES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER N
COLOMBIA WILL INCREASE...THUS YIELDING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W TUE MORNING.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A STORM LOW CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM
19N70W SW TO SOUTHERN HAITI WHERE IT STALLS TO PANAMA ADJACENT
WATERS. LIFTING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT ENTERS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO AND STALLS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE SW TO SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 18N73W WHERE
ITS STALLS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER SPECIAL FEATURES
FOR DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY N OF 20N. SURFACE HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD BEHIND
THE FRONT W OF 75W WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES AHEAD OF IT
BEING ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 31N34W. AHEAD OF THIS
RIDGE...A STATIONARY FRONT IS BEING ANALYZED FROM 30N20W TO
22N39W. BY LATE TODAY THE FRONT WILL STALL S OF 24N...LIFTING N
FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT. RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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