[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
TWO AREAS...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 6-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSISTS OF A COLD
FRONT FROM 29N89W TO 21N98W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
26N TO THE WEST OF 90W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/
FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 6-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO CONSISTS OF
NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 95W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 24-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD
FRONT FROM 31N79W TO 28N81W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTHEAST-TO-
SOUTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 13 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 75W. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 07N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N18W TO
03N30W 02N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W...TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 02N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
06W AND 11W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE LINE FROM 12N17W TO 05N30W TO 05N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 20N97W ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N79W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
20N98W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND
STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KDLP.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KVBS...KEMK...KGUL...KVQT...KGHB...
KGRY...KEIR...AND KSPR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING
COMMUNITIES INCLUDING IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR
ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT RAIN IN NEW IBERIA...GALLIANO...AND IN
THE BOOTHVILLE METROPOLITAN AREA WITH THUNDER. LIGHT RAIN AND
VFR/NO CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM SLIDELL TO THE AREAS
THAT ARE AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
MISSISSIPPI...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.
ALABAMA...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER IN THE MOBILE METROPOLITAN
AREA. FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN FROM PENSACOLA TO MILTON AND IN
CRESTVIEW. MVFR IN MARY ESTHER AND VALPARAISO. MVFR IN MARATHON
KEY. VFR IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND
REGIME THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FROM 40W WESTWARD.

600 MB TO 800 MB EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 71W EASTWARD...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 22/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.02 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE SOUTHERN
END OF A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NEAR 20N70W.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CEILING AT 22/0100 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IN BARAHONA AT 22/0000 UTC. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. RAIN IS BEING
REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ONE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN COLOMBIA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
PANAMA...AND A SECOND ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE
JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE TWO ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERS EVENTUALLY WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE
CENTER...AND IT WILL END UP ON TOP OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE THAT WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST...AND BROAD
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF AN EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST
WIND FLOW FOR THE START OF DAY ONE...BECOMING SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH
BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF DAY TWO AS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 40W WESTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N32W TO 27N43W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
27N43W TO 26N53W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC THAT IS NEAR 20N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N22W 25N40W 24N50W...TO THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 32N70W TO 31N77W...BEYOND
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF GEORGIA...AND INLAND. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE
32N32W-TO-HISPANIOLA FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 60W WESTWARD. THE 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT
22/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.08 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 16N18W TO
06N32W AND 02N46W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
16N18W 09N30W 09N41W 07N56W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N15W...TO 28N24W 23N42W...TO 19N62W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EVERYWHERE THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N32W-TO-HISPANIOLA FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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