[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         A
...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS LATE THURSDAY AND
BRING GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO GENERALLY S OF 21N W OF 95W BY 22/1800 UTC. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W TO
06N23W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 00N35W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 07W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
22N93W. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SE GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOWING ON
RADAR N OF 28N BETWEEN 87W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE GULF WITH A 90 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE S GULF. UPPER
AIR MOISTURE IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N PRODUCING SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF
25N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE
E TO THE W ATLANTIC PRODUCING MOSTLY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER
THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH GULF
STATES...AS WELL AS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E HISPANIOLA AT
19N69W TO JAMAICA AT 18N78W TO E HONDURAS AT 16N84W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT NE WINDS ARE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 10-20 KT TRADEWIND FLOW WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE OVER
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W.
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT THE
THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ALOFT SUPPRESSING
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SHOWERS TO N OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE FRONT...AND FOR TRADEWIND
SHOWERS TO BE S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 22N60W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO E HISPANIOLA AT 19N69W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N24W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
SW TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N36W TO 22N64W WITH SHOWERS.
ALSO EXPECT THE HIGH TO BE CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
32N17W WITH FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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