[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 07N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N19W
TO 04N26W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 04N26W 01N31W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD...
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 13N17W TO
06N30W TO 05N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 29N81W TO 26N90W TO 23N98W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA 1030 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/ AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KBQX.

IFR CONDITIONS...KGVX...KXIH...KGLS...KMDJ.

VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIFR IN MUCH OF THE LOWER VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
IFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI...MVFR ELSEWHERE
IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS. LIFR IN PALACIOS.
PATCHES OF IFR/MVFR IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND
SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. IFR IN GALVESTON. MVFR IN BEAUMONT/
PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN PARTS OF THE LAKE CHARLES
METROPOLITAN AREA. HEAVY RAIN IN GALLIANO. LIGHT RAIN IN
FOURCHON AND SLIDELL. FROM MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA AND
FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N48W TO 24N60W...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 18N80W
INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF NICARAGUA...WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONT IS
DISSIPATING. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W
25N50W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.21 IN
BERMUDA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND
REGIME THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FROM 44W WESTWARD.

600 MB TO 800 MB EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 52W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM 65W
WESTWARD.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.05 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE OBSERVATION AT 19/2300 UTC. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CLEAR SKY IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE AT SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA
ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL SPAN THE AREA. EXPECT WEST WIND FOR DAY ONE...
AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN
RIDGE. EXPECT EASTERLY WIND FLOW...SOMETIMES FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND SOMETIMES FROM THE SOUTHEAST...FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 44W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 08N33W...BECOMING A
SHEAR AXIS FROM 08N33W TO 04N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N11W...TO A 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N24W...TO 24N40W AND 22N56W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N48W-24N60W STATIONARY
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net