[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172319
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...COLD FRONT IS FROM 31N75W TO 27N80W. N OF
26N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W N AND E OF BAHAMAS SW WINDS ARE 30 TO 40
KT...EXCEPT W TO NW WINDS W OF FRONT WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN
MIXED SWELL...EXCEPT 11 TO 16 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 18/1200 UTC AS
THE FRONT MOVES E. SEE THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N12W TO
05N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 00N27W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 21W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AT 24N80W TO W CUBA AT 23N81W. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS VERY FEW
SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF FRONT. 15-25 NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF
90W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE GULF S OF 28N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF WITH A 100 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE S GULF. UPPER AIR MOISTURE
IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 23N81W TO
BELIZE AT 17N88W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA
AT 22N79W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 10-20 KT TRADEWIND FLOW WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO INCLUDE E PUERTO RICO.
ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...HONDURAS...AND
GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA
TO E HONDURAS WITH SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. AS OF 2100 UTC...A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AT 24N80W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO
CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 35N23W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 25N60W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM 31N60W TO E CUBA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO
EXPECT A 1024 MB HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
30N35W WITH FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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